Alert archive / Oklahoma / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 540

November 16, 201528 counties in Kansas; 38 counties in Oklahoma; 37 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 16, 2015, 8:17 PM CST for 28 counties in Kansas; 38 counties in Oklahoma; 37 counties in Texas. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 16, 2015, 8:17 PM CST (02:17 UTC)
Expired
Nov 17, 2015, 3:00 AM CST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 103 counties

Barber County, KS, Barton County, KS, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Gray County, KS, Harper County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Lane County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Meade County, KS, Ness County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Trego County, KS, Alfalfa County, OK, Beaver County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Grady County, OK, Grant County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Harper County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Kay County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Logan County, OK, Major County, OK, McClain County, OK, Noble County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Payne County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Archer County, TX, Armstrong County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Childress County, TX, Clay County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Donley County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Foard County, TX, Garza County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Knox County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Motley County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX, Wheeler County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
90%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
40%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

39 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 16, 8:19 PM CSTTornado WarningAMAOchiltree, Roberts41 min
Nov 16, 8:28 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMACarson, Gray, Hutchinson, Ochiltree, Roberts47 min
Nov 16, 8:31 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMAArmstrong44 min
Nov 16, 8:39 PM CSTTornado WarningAMALipscomb36 min
Nov 16, 8:42 PM CSTTornado WarningOUNEllis33 min
Nov 16, 8:52 PM CSTTornado WarningAMABeaver42 min
Nov 16, 8:56 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCClark, Ford, Gray, Hodgeman, Meade34 min
Nov 16, 8:57 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMACarson, Gray33 min
Nov 16, 9:03 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMACollingsworth, Wheeler47 min
Nov 16, 9:15 PM CSTTornado WarningOUNEllis, Harper, Woodward30 min
Nov 16, 9:18 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedAMABeaver42 min
Nov 16, 9:22 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMAGray18 min
Nov 16, 9:24 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCClark, Ford, Hodgeman34 min
Nov 16, 9:45 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedOUNHarper, Woods33 min
Nov 16, 9:50 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCEdwards, Ford, Hodgeman, Ness, Pawnee, Rush42 min
Nov 16, 9:55 PM CSTTornado WarningDDCBarber, Comanche50 min
Nov 16, 9:55 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNBeckham, Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Kiowa, Washita50 min
Nov 16, 9:56 PM CSTTornado WarningOUNHarper49 min
Nov 16, 10:10 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCClark, Comanche65 min
Nov 16, 10:31 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCEllis, Rush28 min
Nov 16, 10:33 PM CSTTornado WarningDDCBarber, Comanche, Kiowa, Pratt42 min
Nov 16, 10:34 PM CSTTornado WarningOUNHarper26 min
Nov 16, 10:35 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNBeckham, Custer, Greer, Kiowa, Washita40 min
Nov 16, 10:37 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTBarton, Russell23 min
Nov 16, 10:49 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCClark, Comanche, Kiowa56 min
Nov 16, 11:19 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCBarber, Comanche, Kiowa, Pratt41 min
Nov 16, 11:25 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNBlaine, Caddo, Canadian, Custer, Kingfisher, Washita50 min
Nov 17, 12:10 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNAlfalfa, Major35 min
Nov 17, 12:13 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNBlaine, Canadian, Garfield, Kingfisher, Major47 min
Nov 17, 12:30 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNGarfield, Grant30 min
Nov 17, 12:34 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNCaddo, Comanche, Cotton, Grady, Stephens, Tillman41 min
Nov 17, 12:43 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTHarper, Sumner47 min
Nov 17, 12:45 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNArcher, Clay45 min
Nov 17, 12:59 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNGarfield, Grant, Kay, Kingfisher, Logan, Noble and 1 more46 min
Nov 17, 1:07 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNCotton23 min
Nov 17, 1:25 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNCotton, Jefferson, Stephens50 min
Nov 17, 1:45 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNKay, Lincoln, Logan, Noble, Payne45 min
Nov 17, 2:09 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNCarter, Cleveland, Garvin, Grady, Jefferson, Love and 3 more51 min
Nov 17, 2:27 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNKay33 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 2.3 hours before the alert went out and 123 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2015-11-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 994 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2015-11-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 351 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
994 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-42 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
812 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
63 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
351 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
399 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
2.5
Supercell composite
11.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

724 
WWUS20 KWNS 170215
SEL0  
SPC WW 170215
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-170900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 540
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
810 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
  WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
  WESTERN AND NORTHWEST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 810 PM
  UNTIL 300 AM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
    TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES...HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WIND EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE EVENING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS...THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS. OTHER STORMS
EXPECTED TO FORM WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY AND MERGE INTO AN EXTENSIVE
LINE A BIT LATER TONIGHT. ALL OF THE STORMS SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE
EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A
CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF RUSSELL
KANSAS TO 100 MILES SOUTH OF CHILDRESS TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 537. WATCH NUMBER 537 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
810 PM CST. CONTINUE...WW 538...WW 539...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22050.


...CORFIDI

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 16, 7:43 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDecatur, Gove, Graham, Greeley, Logan, Norton and 9 more92 min
Nov 16, 8:07 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Comanche, Edwards, Ford, Gray, Haskell and 7 more83 min
Nov 16, 10:19 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Harper, Harvey, Kingman, McPherson, Pratt and 4 more86 min
Nov 17, 12:58 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCowley, Harper, Harvey, Kingman, Reno, Rice and 2 more2 hr
Nov 17, 1:48 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCChautauqua, Cowley, Labette, Montgomery5 hr
Nov 17, 10:27 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Greeley, Hamilton, Logan, Rawlins, Sherman and 3 more4 hr
Nov 17, 3:43 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Greeley, Hamilton, Logan, Morton and 6 more4 hr
Nov 17, 4:35 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Atoka, Cherokee, Choctaw, Craig, Delaware and 14 more115 min
Nov 17, 4:48 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCMcCurtain4 hr
Nov 16, 6:10 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAndrews, Borden, Coke, Crane, Crockett, Dawson and 22 more8 hr
Nov 16, 8:16 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Borden, Coke, Crane, Crockett, Dawson and 26 more89 min
Nov 16, 10:45 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBosque, Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Collin, Comanche and 33 more7 hr
Nov 17, 2:17 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBosque, Brown, Collin, Comanche, Cooke, Coryell and 21 more118 min
Nov 17, 4:18 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bell, Bosque, Bowie, Brazos, Camp and 39 more57 min
Nov 17, 8:24 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAngelina, Gregg, Hardin, Harrison, Jasper, Marion and 10 more66 min
Nov 17, 8:55 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAngelina, Bowie, Cass, Chambers, Fort Bend, Hardin and 21 more7 hr
Nov 17, 12:19 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange, Sabine116 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2015Tornado Watches in Texas, 2015Tornado Watches in Kansas, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.