Alert archive / Texas / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 543

November 17, 20154 counties in Arkansas; 45 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 17, 2015, 4:48 AM CST for 4 counties in Arkansas; 45 counties in Texas. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 17, 2015, 4:48 AM CST (10:48 UTC)
Expired
Nov 17, 2015, 9:00 AM CST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
0.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 49 counties

Howard County, AR, Little River County, AR, Miller County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Anderson County, TX, Angelina County, TX, Bell County, TX, Bowie County, TX, Brazos County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Delta County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Grimes County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Houston County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, Madison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Milam County, TX, Morris County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Panola County, TX, Rains County, TX, Red River County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Rusk County, TX, San Augustine County, TX, Shelby County, TX, Smith County, TX, Titus County, TX, Trinity County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Walker County, TX, Wood County, TX

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 160 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
30%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
50%

Warnings issued inside it

6 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 17, 4:54 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDHunt66 min
Nov 17, 4:55 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningHGXBrazos, Grimes, Madison, Walker17 min
Nov 17, 5:27 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDDelta, Fannin, Lamar60 min
Nov 17, 7:35 AM CSTTornado WarningHGXGrimes, Montgomery, Walker25 min
Nov 17, 8:04 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningHGXHouston, San Jacinto, Trinity, Walker41 min
Nov 17, 8:57 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningHGXHouston, Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity, Walker48 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 170 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2015-11-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 683 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2015-11-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 444 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
683 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-156 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
712 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
444 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
505 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.6
Supercell composite
4.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

597 
WWUS20 KWNS 171045
SEL3  
SPC WW 171045
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-171500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 543
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
  SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
  EAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 445 AM UNTIL 900 AM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TX WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS MORNING...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL.  WIND PROFILES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN THE STRONGER CELLS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
LUFKIN TEXAS TO 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF PARIS TEXAS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 542...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 17, 4:35 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Crawford, Franklin, Howard, Johnson, Logan and 9 more115 min
Nov 17, 6:27 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clark, Conway and 21 more6 hr
Nov 17, 8:24 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Lafayette66 min
Nov 17, 8:55 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCColumbia, Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller and 3 more7 hr
Nov 17, 9:59 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Baxter, Boone, Bradley, Calhoun and 58 more2 hr
Nov 17, 11:07 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland and 21 more6 hr
Nov 17, 12:19 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Chicot116 min
Nov 17, 12:36 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAshley, Chicot7 hr
Nov 17, 1:35 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Cleburne, Cleveland, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross and 25 more115 min
Nov 17, 3:15 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCCraighead, Crittenden, Cross, Lee, Mississippi, Phillips and 2 more4 hr
Nov 17, 3:19 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Fulton, Greene, Izard, Lawrence, Randolph and 1 more116 min
Nov 17, 5:36 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrittenden, Cross, Lee, Monroe, Phillips, Poinsett and 1 more84 min
Nov 16, 6:10 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAndrews, Borden, Coke, Crane, Crockett, Dawson and 22 more8 hr
Nov 16, 8:07 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 38 more83 min
Nov 16, 8:16 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Borden, Coke, Crane, Crockett, Dawson and 26 more89 min
Nov 16, 8:17 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCArcher, Armstrong, Baylor, Briscoe, Carson, Childress and 31 more7 hr
Nov 16, 10:19 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Baylor, Callahan, Clay, Coke, Coleman and 16 more86 min
Nov 16, 10:45 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBosque, Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Collin, Comanche and 33 more7 hr
Nov 17, 12:58 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Clay, Cooke, Montague, Wichita2 hr
Nov 17, 2:17 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBosque, Brown, Collin, Comanche, Cooke, Coryell and 21 more118 min
Nov 17, 4:18 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bell, Bosque, Bowie, Brazos, Camp and 39 more57 min
Nov 17, 3:43 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDallam, Sherman4 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Texas, 2015Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.