Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2015
Tornado Watch 548
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 17, 2015, 3:15 PM CST for 8 counties in Arkansas; 8 counties in Mississippi; Shelby County, Tipton County, Tennessee. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 17, 2015, 3:15 PM CST (21:15 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 17, 2015, 7:13 PM CST
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 0.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
Counties Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Lee County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Panola County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN
The radar
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 40%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 30%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 10%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 60%
Warnings issued inside it
2 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 4:53 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Lee, Phillips | 37 min |
| Nov 17, 5:02 PM CST | Tornado Warning | MEG | Phillips | 23 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 67 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 344 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -23 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 618 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 46 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 403 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 550 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.9
- Supercell composite
- 8.5
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
855 WWUS20 KWNS 172110 SEL8 SPC WW 172110 ARZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-180300- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 548 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 310 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI EXTREME SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL 900 PM CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WHILE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 85 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MEMPHIS TENNESSEE TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MEMPHIS TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 545...WW 546...WW 547... AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21045. ...MEAD
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 4:35 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Crawford, Franklin, Howard, Johnson, Logan and 9 more | 115 min |
| Nov 17, 4:48 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Howard, Little River, Miller, Sevier | 4 hr |
| Nov 17, 6:27 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clark, Conway and 21 more | 6 hr |
| Nov 17, 8:24 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Columbia, Lafayette | 66 min |
| Nov 17, 8:55 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Columbia, Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller and 3 more | 7 hr |
| Nov 17, 9:59 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Baxter, Boone, Bradley, Calhoun and 58 more | 2 hr |
| Nov 17, 11:07 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Arkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland and 21 more | 6 hr |
| Nov 17, 12:19 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ashley, Chicot | 116 min |
| Nov 17, 12:36 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Ashley, Chicot | 7 hr |
| Nov 17, 1:35 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Cleburne, Cleveland, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross and 25 more | 115 min |
| Nov 17, 3:19 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Fulton, Greene, Izard, Lawrence, Randolph and 1 more | 116 min |
| Nov 17, 5:36 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crittenden, Cross, Lee, Monroe, Phillips, Poinsett and 1 more | 84 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2015Tornado Watches in Mississippi, 2015Tornado Watches in Tennessee, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.