Alert archive / Louisiana / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 545

November 17, 20159 counties in Arkansas; 31 parishes in Louisiana; 27 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 17, 2015, 8:55 AM CST for 9 counties in Arkansas; 31 parishes in Louisiana; 27 counties in Texas. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 17, 2015, 8:55 AM CST (14:55 UTC)
Expired
Nov 17, 2015, 4:00 PM CST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 67 counties

Columbia County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Howard County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Little River County, AR, Miller County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Union County, AR, Acadia Parish, LA, Allen Parish, LA, Avoyelles Parish, LA, Beauregard Parish, LA, Bienville Parish, LA, Bossier Parish, LA, Caddo Parish, LA, Calcasieu Parish, LA, Caldwell Parish, LA, Cameron Parish, LA, Claiborne Parish, LA, De Soto Parish, LA, Evangeline Parish, LA, Grant Parish, LA, Jackson Parish, LA, Jefferson Davis Parish, LA, Lafayette Parish, LA, LaSalle Parish, LA, Lincoln Parish, LA, Natchitoches Parish, LA, Ouachita Parish, LA, Rapides Parish, LA, Red River Parish, LA, Sabine Parish, LA, Saint Landry Parish, LA, Saint Martin Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, Vermilion Parish, LA, Vernon Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, Winn Parish, LA, Angelina County, TX, Bowie County, TX, Cass County, TX, Chambers County, TX, Fort Bend County, TX, Hardin County, TX, Harris County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Jasper County, TX, Jefferson County, TX, Liberty County, TX, Marion County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Newton County, TX, Orange County, TX, Panola County, TX, Polk County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Sabine County, TX, San Augustine County, TX, San Jacinto County, TX, Shelby County, TX, Trinity County, TX, Tyler County, TX, Walker County, TX, Waller County, TX

The radar

The Ft Polk radar (KPOE), 128 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

11 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 17, 8:57 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningHGXHouston, Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity, Walker48 min
Nov 17, 10:42 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVColumbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Nevada63 min
Nov 17, 11:13 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHAllen, Beauregard, Vernon47 min
Nov 17, 11:43 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVColumbia, Union62 min
Nov 17, 12:14 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVBienville, Bossier, De Soto, Natchitoches, Red River, Sabine61 min
Nov 17, 12:42 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVUnion63 min
Nov 17, 1:09 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVBienville, Jackson, Natchitoches, Red River, Sabine, Winn51 min
Nov 17, 1:53 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningSHVAngelina, Cherokee, Nacogdoches, Rusk, San Augustine, Shelby3 hr
Nov 17, 1:58 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVUnion48 min
Nov 17, 2:26 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHBeauregard, Calcasieu34 min
Nov 17, 2:26 PM CSTTornado WarningLCHAllen, Beauregard, Vernon34 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KBAD), launched 12:00Z, 2.9 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2015-11-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 559 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2015-11-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 264 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
559 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-11 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
703 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
264 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
404 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.5
Supercell composite
4.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

980 
WWUS20 KWNS 171448
SEL5  
SPC WW 171448
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-CWZ000-172200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 545
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
  WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
  EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
  COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 850 AM UNTIL
  400 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING
INTO AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA.  THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
PORT ARTHUR TEXAS TO 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS. 
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 543...WW 544...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.


...MEAD

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 17, 4:35 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Crawford, Franklin, Howard, Johnson, Logan and 9 more115 min
Nov 17, 4:48 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCHoward, Little River, Miller, Sevier4 hr
Nov 17, 6:27 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clark, Conway and 21 more6 hr
Nov 17, 8:24 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Lafayette66 min
Nov 17, 9:59 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Baxter, Boone, Bradley, Calhoun and 58 more2 hr
Nov 17, 11:07 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland and 21 more6 hr
Nov 17, 12:19 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Chicot116 min
Nov 17, 12:36 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAshley, Chicot7 hr
Nov 17, 1:35 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Cleburne, Cleveland, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross and 25 more115 min
Nov 17, 3:15 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCCraighead, Crittenden, Cross, Lee, Mississippi, Phillips and 2 more4 hr
Nov 17, 3:19 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Fulton, Greene, Izard, Lawrence, Randolph and 1 more116 min
Nov 17, 5:36 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrittenden, Cross, Lee, Monroe, Phillips, Poinsett and 1 more84 min
Nov 17, 2:51 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Caldwell and 20 more84 min
Nov 17, 3:33 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAcadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Calcasieu, Cameron, Evangeline and 6 more4 hr
Nov 17, 5:54 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Calcasieu, Cameron, Evangeline and 6 more96 min
Nov 16, 6:10 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAndrews, Borden, Coke, Crane, Crockett, Dawson and 22 more8 hr
Nov 16, 8:07 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 38 more83 min
Nov 16, 8:16 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Borden, Coke, Crane, Crockett, Dawson and 26 more89 min
Nov 16, 8:17 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCArcher, Armstrong, Baylor, Briscoe, Carson, Childress and 31 more7 hr
Nov 16, 10:19 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Baylor, Callahan, Clay, Coke, Coleman and 16 more86 min
Nov 16, 10:45 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBosque, Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Collin, Comanche and 33 more7 hr
Nov 17, 12:58 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Clay, Cooke, Montague, Wichita2 hr
Nov 17, 2:17 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBosque, Brown, Collin, Comanche, Cooke, Coryell and 21 more118 min
Nov 17, 4:18 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bell, Bosque, Bowie, Brazos, Camp and 39 more57 min
Nov 17, 3:43 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDallam, Sherman4 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2015Tornado Watches in Texas, 2015Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.