Alert archive / Texas / Tornado Watches in 2015
Tornado Watch 541
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 16, 2015, 10:45 PM CST for 39 counties in Texas. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 16, 2015, 10:45 PM CST (04:45 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 17, 2015, 6:00 AM CST
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 65 kt
All 39 counties
Bosque County, TX, Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Collin County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Concho County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Denton County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Jones County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Mills County, TX, Montague County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Runnels County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX
The radar
The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 30%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 70%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 30%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 30%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 95%
Warnings issued inside it
16 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 11:40 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SJT | Callahan, Jones, Shackelford, Taylor | 35 min |
| Nov 17, 12:37 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FWD | Stephens | 53 min |
| Nov 17, 12:49 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FWD | Eastland | 56 min |
| Nov 17, 1:26 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FWD | Palo Pinto, Stephens | 64 min |
| Nov 17, 1:48 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FWD | Jack | 57 min |
| Nov 17, 3:01 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FWD | Parker, Tarrant | 59 min |
| Nov 17, 3:15 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FWD | Denton | 60 min |
| Nov 17, 3:22 AM CST | Tornado Warning | FWD | Tarrant | 38 min |
| Nov 17, 3:28 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FWD | Cooke, Grayson | 62 min |
| Nov 17, 3:41 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FWD | Dallas | 64 min |
| Nov 17, 3:46 AM CST | Tornado Warning | FWD | Collin, Denton | 29 min |
| Nov 17, 3:59 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FWD | Ellis, Johnson | 61 min |
| Nov 17, 4:02 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FWD | Collin | 58 min |
| Nov 17, 4:13 AM CST | Tornado Warning | FWD | Collin | 32 min |
| Nov 17, 4:26 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FWD | Fannin, Grayson | 64 min |
| Nov 17, 4:45 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FWD | Dallas, Ellis, Kaufman, Rockwall | 50 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 4.8 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 683 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -156 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 712 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 53 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 444 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 505 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.6
- Supercell composite
- 4.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
023
WWUS20 KWNS 170440
SEL1
SPC WW 170440
TXZ000-170900-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 541
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1030 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS NOW EXITING THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND
APPROACHING WESTERN PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY / NORTHWEST TEXAS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN AND MERGE INTO A MORE SOLID LINE
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE. AS THE LINE CONTINUES EASTWARD...A RISK
WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WIND...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST OF WICHITA FALLS
TEXAS TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BROWNWOOD TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 537. WATCH NUMBER 537 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
1030 PM CST. CONTINUE...WW 539...WW 540...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
...CORFIDISPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 8:07 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaver, Beckham, Ellis, Greer, Harmon, Harper and 3 more | 83 min |
| Nov 16, 8:17 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alfalfa, Beaver, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian and 32 more | 7 hr |
| Nov 16, 10:19 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton and 17 more | 86 min |
| Nov 17, 12:58 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atoka, Bryan, Canadian, Carter, Choctaw, Cleveland and 37 more | 2 hr |
| Nov 17, 1:48 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adair, Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw and 30 more | 5 hr |
| Nov 17, 4:35 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Atoka, Cherokee, Choctaw, Craig, Delaware and 14 more | 115 min |
| Nov 17, 4:48 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | McCurtain | 4 hr |
| Nov 17, 3:43 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cimarron | 4 hr |
| Nov 16, 6:10 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Coke, Crane, Crockett, Dawson and 22 more | 8 hr |
| Nov 16, 8:16 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Coke, Crane, Crockett, Dawson and 26 more | 89 min |
| Nov 17, 2:17 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bosque, Brown, Collin, Comanche, Cooke, Coryell and 21 more | 118 min |
| Nov 17, 4:18 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Bowie, Brazos, Camp and 39 more | 57 min |
| Nov 17, 8:24 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Angelina, Gregg, Hardin, Harrison, Jasper, Marion and 10 more | 66 min |
| Nov 17, 8:55 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Angelina, Bowie, Cass, Chambers, Fort Bend, Hardin and 21 more | 7 hr |
| Nov 17, 12:19 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange, Sabine | 116 min |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.