Alert archive / Texas / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 541

November 16, 201539 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 16, 2015, 10:45 PM CST for 39 counties in Texas. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 16, 2015, 10:45 PM CST (04:45 UTC)
Expired
Nov 17, 2015, 6:00 AM CST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 39 counties

Bosque County, TX, Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Collin County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Concho County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Denton County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Jones County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Mills County, TX, Montague County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Runnels County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

The radar

The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
30%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

16 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 16, 11:40 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTCallahan, Jones, Shackelford, Taylor35 min
Nov 17, 12:37 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDStephens53 min
Nov 17, 12:49 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDEastland56 min
Nov 17, 1:26 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDPalo Pinto, Stephens64 min
Nov 17, 1:48 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDJack57 min
Nov 17, 3:01 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDParker, Tarrant59 min
Nov 17, 3:15 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDDenton60 min
Nov 17, 3:22 AM CSTTornado WarningFWDTarrant38 min
Nov 17, 3:28 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDCooke, Grayson62 min
Nov 17, 3:41 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDDallas64 min
Nov 17, 3:46 AM CSTTornado WarningFWDCollin, Denton29 min
Nov 17, 3:59 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDEllis, Johnson61 min
Nov 17, 4:02 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDCollin58 min
Nov 17, 4:13 AM CSTTornado WarningFWDCollin32 min
Nov 17, 4:26 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDFannin, Grayson64 min
Nov 17, 4:45 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDDallas, Ellis, Kaufman, Rockwall50 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 4.8 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2015-11-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 683 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2015-11-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 444 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
683 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-156 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
712 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
444 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
505 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.6
Supercell composite
4.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

023 
WWUS20 KWNS 170440
SEL1  
SPC WW 170440
TXZ000-170900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 541
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1030 PM
  UNTIL 300 AM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
    TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS NOW EXITING THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND
APPROACHING WESTERN PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY / NORTHWEST TEXAS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN AND MERGE INTO A MORE SOLID LINE
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE. AS THE LINE CONTINUES EASTWARD...A RISK
WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WIND...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST OF WICHITA FALLS
TEXAS TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BROWNWOOD TEXAS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 537. WATCH NUMBER 537 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
1030 PM CST. CONTINUE...WW 539...WW 540...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.


...CORFIDI

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 16, 8:07 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Beckham, Ellis, Greer, Harmon, Harper and 3 more83 min
Nov 16, 8:17 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAlfalfa, Beaver, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian and 32 more7 hr
Nov 16, 10:19 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton and 17 more86 min
Nov 17, 12:58 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Canadian, Carter, Choctaw, Cleveland and 37 more2 hr
Nov 17, 1:48 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw and 30 more5 hr
Nov 17, 4:35 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Atoka, Cherokee, Choctaw, Craig, Delaware and 14 more115 min
Nov 17, 4:48 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCMcCurtain4 hr
Nov 17, 3:43 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCimarron4 hr
Nov 16, 6:10 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAndrews, Borden, Coke, Crane, Crockett, Dawson and 22 more8 hr
Nov 16, 8:16 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Borden, Coke, Crane, Crockett, Dawson and 26 more89 min
Nov 17, 2:17 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBosque, Brown, Collin, Comanche, Cooke, Coryell and 21 more118 min
Nov 17, 4:18 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bell, Bosque, Bowie, Brazos, Camp and 39 more57 min
Nov 17, 8:24 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAngelina, Gregg, Hardin, Harrison, Jasper, Marion and 10 more66 min
Nov 17, 8:55 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAngelina, Bowie, Cass, Chambers, Fort Bend, Hardin and 21 more7 hr
Nov 17, 12:19 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange, Sabine116 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Texas, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.