Alert archive / Texas / Tornado Watches in 2015
Tornado Watch 539
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 16, 2015, 6:10 PM CST for 28 counties in Texas. It was in force for 8 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 16, 2015, 6:10 PM CST (00:10 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 17, 2015, 2:00 AM CST
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 65 kt
All 28 counties
Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Coke County, TX, Crane County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Irion County, TX, Loving County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 41 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 40%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 50%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 30%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 40%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 10%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 90%
Warnings issued inside it
3 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 6:39 PM CST | Tornado Warning | MAF | Dawson, Gaines | 36 min |
| Nov 16, 10:40 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SJT | Fisher, Jones, Nolan, Taylor | 50 min |
| Nov 16, 11:32 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SJT | Coke, Irion, Sterling, Tom Green | 32 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 41 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 343 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -156 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1375 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 61 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 353 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 385 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 1.5
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
501
WWUS20 KWNS 170008
SEL9
SPC WW 170008
NMZ000-TXZ000-170800-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
610 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
SOUTHWEST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 610 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WATCH AREA THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH THE ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD WITH
TIME. TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING
WIND AND SEVERE HAIL...EXPECTED.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES NORTH OF BIG SPRING
TEXAS TO 75 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF FORT STOCKTON TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 537...WW 538...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
...CORFIDISPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 8:07 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 38 more | 83 min |
| Nov 16, 8:16 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Coke, Crane, Crockett, Dawson and 26 more | 89 min |
| Nov 16, 8:17 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Archer, Armstrong, Baylor, Briscoe, Carson, Childress and 31 more | 7 hr |
| Nov 16, 10:19 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Callahan, Clay, Coke, Coleman and 16 more | 86 min |
| Nov 16, 10:45 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bosque, Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Collin, Comanche and 33 more | 7 hr |
| Nov 17, 12:58 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Clay, Cooke, Montague, Wichita | 2 hr |
| Nov 17, 2:17 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bosque, Brown, Collin, Comanche, Cooke, Coryell and 21 more | 118 min |
| Nov 17, 4:18 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Bowie, Brazos, Camp and 39 more | 57 min |
| Nov 17, 4:48 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Anderson, Angelina, Bell, Bowie, Brazos, Camp and 39 more | 4 hr |
| Nov 17, 8:24 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Angelina, Gregg, Hardin, Harrison, Jasper, Marion and 10 more | 66 min |
| Nov 17, 8:55 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Angelina, Bowie, Cass, Chambers, Fort Bend, Hardin and 21 more | 7 hr |
| Nov 17, 12:19 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange, Sabine | 116 min |
| Nov 17, 3:43 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dallam, Sherman | 4 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.