Alert archive / Texas / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 539

November 16, 201528 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 16, 2015, 6:10 PM CST for 28 counties in Texas. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 16, 2015, 6:10 PM CST (00:10 UTC)
Expired
Nov 17, 2015, 2:00 AM CST
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 28 counties

Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Coke County, TX, Crane County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Irion County, TX, Loving County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 41 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

3 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 16, 6:39 PM CSTTornado WarningMAFDawson, Gaines36 min
Nov 16, 10:40 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTFisher, Jones, Nolan, Taylor50 min
Nov 16, 11:32 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTCoke, Irion, Sterling, Tom Green32 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 41 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 00:00Z on 2015-11-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 343 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 00:00Z on 2015-11-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 353 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
343 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-156 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1375 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
353 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
385 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
1.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

501 
WWUS20 KWNS 170008
SEL9  
SPC WW 170008
NMZ000-TXZ000-170800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
610 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
  SOUTHWEST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 610 PM
  UNTIL 200 AM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
    MPH POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WATCH AREA THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH THE ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD WITH
TIME.  TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING
WIND AND SEVERE HAIL...EXPECTED.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES NORTH OF BIG SPRING
TEXAS TO 75 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF FORT STOCKTON TEXAS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 537...WW 538...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.


...CORFIDI

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 16, 8:07 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 38 more83 min
Nov 16, 8:16 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Borden, Coke, Crane, Crockett, Dawson and 26 more89 min
Nov 16, 8:17 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCArcher, Armstrong, Baylor, Briscoe, Carson, Childress and 31 more7 hr
Nov 16, 10:19 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Baylor, Callahan, Clay, Coke, Coleman and 16 more86 min
Nov 16, 10:45 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBosque, Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Collin, Comanche and 33 more7 hr
Nov 17, 12:58 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Clay, Cooke, Montague, Wichita2 hr
Nov 17, 2:17 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBosque, Brown, Collin, Comanche, Cooke, Coryell and 21 more118 min
Nov 17, 4:18 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bell, Bosque, Bowie, Brazos, Camp and 39 more57 min
Nov 17, 4:48 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAnderson, Angelina, Bell, Bowie, Brazos, Camp and 39 more4 hr
Nov 17, 8:24 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAngelina, Gregg, Hardin, Harrison, Jasper, Marion and 10 more66 min
Nov 17, 8:55 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAngelina, Bowie, Cass, Chambers, Fort Bend, Hardin and 21 more7 hr
Nov 17, 12:19 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange, Sabine116 min
Nov 17, 3:43 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDallam, Sherman4 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Texas, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.