Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015

Mesoscale Discussion 1952

November 16, 201516 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 16, 2015, 5:50 PM CST for 16 counties in Texas. It was in force for 55 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 16, 2015, 5:50 PM CST (23:50 UTC)
Expired: Nov 16, 2015, 6:45 PM CST
In force: 55 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 80%

Counties Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Crane County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Terry County, TX, Upton County, TX, Winkler County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 15 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 354 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 867 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 88 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 158 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 16, 12:44 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Dallam, Deaf Smith and 16 more	3 hr
Nov 16, 1:00 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 35 more	8 hr
Nov 16, 2:31 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Austin, Bastrop, Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Caldwell and 24 more	59 min
Nov 16, 3:51 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 29 more	114 min
Nov 16, 5:56 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Childress, Collingsworth, Crosby and 14 more	94 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2015 Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.