Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015

Mesoscale Discussion 1947

November 16, 201515 counties in Kansas; Beaver County, Cimarron County, Texas County, Oklahoma; 22 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 16, 2015, 12:44 PM CST for 15 counties in Kansas; Beaver County, Cimarron County, Texas County, Oklahoma; 22 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 16, 2015, 12:44 PM CST (18:44 UTC)
Expired: Nov 16, 2015, 3:15 PM CST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 95%

All 40 counties

Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Meade County, KS, Morton County, KS, Scott County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Beaver County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Swisher County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 136 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 867 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 88 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 158 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 16, 1:00 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Barber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis, Finney and 21 more	8 hr
Nov 16, 1:58 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Graham, Greeley, Logan and 8 more	3 hr
Nov 16, 3:34 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Cheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Graham, Greeley, Logan and 9 more	6 hr
Nov 16, 3:51 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clark, Finney, Ford, Grant, Gray, Hamilton and 11 more	114 min
Nov 16, 5:20 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Graham, Greeley, Logan and 8 more	115 min
Nov 16, 5:56 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clark, Comanche, Meade, Seward	94 min
Nov 16, 2:31 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Austin, Bastrop, Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Caldwell and 24 more	59 min
Nov 16, 5:50 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Borden, Crane, Dawson, Ector, Gaines and 10 more	55 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2015 Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2015 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2015 Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.