Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 546

November 17, 201527 counties in Arkansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 17, 2015, 11:07 AM CST for 27 counties in Arkansas. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 17, 2015, 11:07 AM CST (17:07 UTC)
Expired
Nov 17, 2015, 5:22 PM CST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 27 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Conway County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pope County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 26 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
10%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

17 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 17, 11:34 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKClark, Dallas, Hot Spring26 min
Nov 17, 12:39 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKConway, Faulkner, Perry36 min
Nov 17, 1:30 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKGrant, Jefferson, Saline30 min
Nov 17, 2:00 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKGrant, Jefferson, Lonoke, Pulaski, Saline45 min
Nov 17, 2:21 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKFaulkner, Pulaski3 hr
Nov 17, 2:44 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLonoke31 min
Nov 17, 2:48 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKBaxter, Cleburne, Conway, Faulkner, Izard, Lonoke and 4 more3 hr
Nov 17, 2:56 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKArkansas, Jefferson, Lonoke, Prairie49 min
Nov 17, 2:59 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKArkansas, Desha, Drew, Jefferson, Lincoln46 min
Nov 17, 3:09 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLonoke, Prairie, White51 min
Nov 17, 3:13 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKLonoke, Pulaski3 hr
Nov 17, 3:24 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKLonoke, Monroe, Prairie36 min
Nov 17, 3:30 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKArkansas, Monroe, Prairie, Woodruff45 min
Nov 17, 3:47 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKIndependence, Jackson, Prairie, White, Woodruff43 min
Nov 17, 3:57 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKArkansas, Desha, Lincoln, Monroe48 min
Nov 17, 4:14 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKArkansas, Monroe, Prairie, Woodruff46 min
Nov 17, 4:21 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKIndependence, Jackson, Lonoke, Monroe, Prairie, White and 1 more3 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 5.1 hours before the alert went out and 206 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2015-11-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 344 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2015-11-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 403 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
344 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-23 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
618 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
403 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
550 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.9
Supercell composite
8.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 17, 4:35 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Crawford, Franklin, Howard, Johnson, Logan and 9 more115 min
Nov 17, 4:48 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCHoward, Little River, Miller, Sevier4 hr
Nov 17, 6:27 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clark, Conway and 21 more6 hr
Nov 17, 8:24 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Lafayette66 min
Nov 17, 8:55 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCColumbia, Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller and 3 more7 hr
Nov 17, 9:59 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Baxter, Boone, Bradley, Calhoun and 58 more2 hr
Nov 17, 12:19 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Chicot116 min
Nov 17, 12:36 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAshley, Chicot7 hr
Nov 17, 1:35 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Cleburne, Cleveland, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross and 25 more115 min
Nov 17, 3:15 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCCraighead, Crittenden, Cross, Lee, Mississippi, Phillips and 2 more4 hr
Nov 17, 3:19 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Fulton, Greene, Izard, Lawrence, Randolph and 1 more116 min
Nov 17, 5:36 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrittenden, Cross, Lee, Monroe, Phillips, Poinsett and 1 more84 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.