Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2015
Tornado Watch 546
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 17, 2015, 11:07 AM CST for 27 counties in Arkansas. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 17, 2015, 11:07 AM CST (17:07 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 17, 2015, 5:22 PM CST
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 27 counties
Arkansas County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Conway County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pope County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR
The radar
The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 26 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 50%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 30%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 10%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 10%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 60%
Warnings issued inside it
17 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 11:34 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Clark, Dallas, Hot Spring | 26 min |
| Nov 17, 12:39 PM CST | Tornado Warning | LZK | Conway, Faulkner, Perry | 36 min |
| Nov 17, 1:30 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Grant, Jefferson, Saline | 30 min |
| Nov 17, 2:00 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Grant, Jefferson, Lonoke, Pulaski, Saline | 45 min |
| Nov 17, 2:21 PM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | Faulkner, Pulaski | 3 hr |
| Nov 17, 2:44 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Lonoke | 31 min |
| Nov 17, 2:48 PM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | Baxter, Cleburne, Conway, Faulkner, Izard, Lonoke and 4 more | 3 hr |
| Nov 17, 2:56 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Arkansas, Jefferson, Lonoke, Prairie | 49 min |
| Nov 17, 2:59 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Arkansas, Desha, Drew, Jefferson, Lincoln | 46 min |
| Nov 17, 3:09 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Lonoke, Prairie, White | 51 min |
| Nov 17, 3:13 PM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | Lonoke, Pulaski | 3 hr |
| Nov 17, 3:24 PM CST | Tornado Warning | LZK | Lonoke, Monroe, Prairie | 36 min |
| Nov 17, 3:30 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Arkansas, Monroe, Prairie, Woodruff | 45 min |
| Nov 17, 3:47 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Independence, Jackson, Prairie, White, Woodruff | 43 min |
| Nov 17, 3:57 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Arkansas, Desha, Lincoln, Monroe | 48 min |
| Nov 17, 4:14 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Arkansas, Monroe, Prairie, Woodruff | 46 min |
| Nov 17, 4:21 PM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | Independence, Jackson, Lonoke, Monroe, Prairie, White and 1 more | 3 hr |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 5.1 hours before the alert went out and 206 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 344 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -23 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 618 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 46 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 403 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 550 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.9
- Supercell composite
- 8.5
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 4:35 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Crawford, Franklin, Howard, Johnson, Logan and 9 more | 115 min |
| Nov 17, 4:48 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Howard, Little River, Miller, Sevier | 4 hr |
| Nov 17, 6:27 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clark, Conway and 21 more | 6 hr |
| Nov 17, 8:24 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Columbia, Lafayette | 66 min |
| Nov 17, 8:55 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Columbia, Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller and 3 more | 7 hr |
| Nov 17, 9:59 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Baxter, Boone, Bradley, Calhoun and 58 more | 2 hr |
| Nov 17, 12:19 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ashley, Chicot | 116 min |
| Nov 17, 12:36 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Ashley, Chicot | 7 hr |
| Nov 17, 1:35 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Cleburne, Cleveland, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross and 25 more | 115 min |
| Nov 17, 3:15 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Lee, Mississippi, Phillips and 2 more | 4 hr |
| Nov 17, 3:19 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Fulton, Greene, Izard, Lawrence, Randolph and 1 more | 116 min |
| Nov 17, 5:36 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crittenden, Cross, Lee, Monroe, Phillips, Poinsett and 1 more | 84 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.