Severe Thunderstorm Warning 340, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1007 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

.UPDATE...

WITH REGARD TO SEVERE STORMS...NOTHING ON RADAR HAS LOOKED OVERLY
CONCERNING SO FAR THIS MORNING. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS REMAINS THE PLACE OF MOST CONCERN AS THIS IS WHERE THE
BEST...RELATIVELY SPEAKING...INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AND
FORECAST TO BE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME ISOLATED CELLS
HAVE SPRUNG UP IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES OR SO FROM PINE BLUFF
SOUTHWEST THROUGH FORDYCE AND CAMDEN AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR RADAR TRENDS IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. POPS
ARE PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO HIGH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT RAIN WILL ASSUREDLY FILL IN
THERE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO LEFT THAT ALONE. ALSO UPDATED
THE ADVISORY HEADLINES TO REMOVE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN THE
WEST. SOME GUSTS TO ADVISORY LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BUT AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH...GUST POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY. LEFT THE REMAINING WIND ADVISORY IN THE EAST AS IS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/

AVIATION...17/12Z TAF CYCLE

SCTD SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MRNG WL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FM THE W AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDS THRU THE DAY TODAY...
DETERIORATING TO IFR CONDS ONCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MOVES INTO A
PARTICULAR FCST SITE. GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WL ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE CDFNT.
CONDS WL SLOLY IMPROVE LATER TNGT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED SHRA AND SOME TSRA ARE CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER
OK. A LARGE...ORGANIZED...QUASI-LINEAR LINE OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVER CENTRAL OK...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH AR THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM EARLY THIS MORNING AS WARM MOIST AIR
SURGES NORTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FAIRLY HEAVY ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH MANY AREAS ALREADY SEEING AROUND AN INCH FOR THE NWRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AS OF MIDNIGHT. IN FACT...A FEW ISOLATED
LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED 2 INCHES SUCH AS RUE. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

WHILE THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA HAS LESSENED OVER THE PAST
FEW HRS...THIS WILL LIKELY FILL BACK IN AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE
APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
POSSIBLY OVER 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 2 TO OVER 5 INCHES. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 6
INCHES COULD BE SEEN FOR STORM TOTALS. THE FFA CONTINUES THROUGH
TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. HIGH LEVELS OF SRH CONTINUE TO SHOW UP IN THE
NEAR TERM DATA...WHICH SUGGESTS AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY LEVELS REMAIN LIMITED. EVEN SO...THE AMOUNT OF
FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH THE HIGH LEVELS OF
SRH SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE LOW CAPE TO SEE SOME ORGANIZED
ROTATING STORMS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEEING ANY TORNADOES WILL BE
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX. IF SOME ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS WERE TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS LINE...SOME TORNADIC ACTIVITY
COULD ALSO BE SEEN WITH THOSE STORMS. ALSO...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING SVR WX WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA...THOUGH A SVR
WX THREAT WILL EXIST GENERALLY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE VERY TIGHT...WITH
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS THE ERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED...AND
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE THAT TIME FRAME EVERYWHERE...WITH 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS EXPECTED...AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE. LAKE WIND AND WIND
ADV ARE ALREADY POSTED...AND WILL KEEP SAME TIMING AND PLACEMENT FOR
NOW.

ALL PRECIP SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE WED...WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE
THU INTO FRI...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO SIG CHGS MADE TO THE FCST DURG THIS TIME PD. PROGRESSIVE UPR FLOW
WL BRING AN UPR TROF THRU THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY OVR THE
WEEKEND. THIS WL ALLOW FOR A FAST MOVG CDFNT TO MOVE THRU AR FM THE
NW LATE FRI NGT/SAT. MODELS STILL AT ODDS REGARDING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ALONG THE FNT. FOR CONSISTENCY...OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FCST
ATTM.

COLDER AIR WL ADVECT IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE ASSOCD SFC
RDG WL BE CENTERED OVR AR BY SUN MRNG...WITH THE MERCURY DROPPING
CLOSE TO THE FRZG MARK OVER A GOOD PART OF THE FA. THE AIRMASS WL
BEGIN TO SLOLY MODIFY STARTING MON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EWD AND SLY
WINDS RETURN TO THE MID SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     70  48  61  43 / 100 100  10   0
CAMDEN AR         74  47  65  42 / 100  70  10   0
HARRISON AR       68  43  57  40 / 100  40   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  45  62  42 / 100  50  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  47  63  43 / 100  90  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     74  50  66  45 / 100 100  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      74  44  62  40 / 100  30   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  45  59  40 / 100  80  10  10
NEWPORT AR        71  50  61  42 / 100 100  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     73  48  64  43 / 100 100  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  45  61  39 / 100  40   0   0
SEARCY AR         70  47  62  41 / 100 100  10   0
STUTTGART AR      72  49  64  44 / 100 100  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-GRANT-INDEPENDENCE-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-
SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-
SEARCY-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

64

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1116 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

ARZ052>054-062-171745-
PIKE AR-HOT SPRING AR-DALLAS AR-CLARK AR-
1116 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL DALLAS...
SOUTHEASTERN PIKE...CENTRAL CLARK AND SOUTHWESTERN HOT SPRING
COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 AM CST...

AT 1115 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BEIRNE...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF PRESCOTT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARKADELPHIA...GURDON...CADDO VALLEY...OKOLONA...BEIRNE...GUM SPRINGS
IN CLARK COUNTY...HALFWAY...RICHWOODS...HOLLYWOOD...CURTIS...
BURTSELL...DALARK...GRIFFITHTOWN AND LOWER LAKE RECREATION AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.

LAT...LON 3385 9330 3389 9330 3396 9337 3395 9342
      3396 9344 3427 9321 3404 9286 3383 9324
TIME...MOT...LOC 1715Z 221DEG 45KT 3390 9330

CD