Severe Thunderstorm Warning 370, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
406 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND AN EARLY
MORNING LINE OF STORMS THIS MORNING WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH LATE MORNING...

...GUSTY WEST WINDS RETURN TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281
BEHIND A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER MORNING IS IN PROGRESS...AS A STRONG TO
SEVERE SQUALL LINE MOVES TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIVE
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN OUR
FAR WEST COUNTIES CURRENTLY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT PROGRESSIVELY EAST
OVER THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE NEARLY VERTICALLY-STACKED...WITH A SURFACE LOW IN
THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY BY THIS AFTERNOON.

INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSIST MOVING BOTH THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AND
RESULTANT SQUALL LINE EAST INTO THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
MID MORNING. IN ADDITION...WE ARE MONITORING AN INCREASING CLUSTER
OF STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS MOVING NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE CENTERVILLE/PALESTINE AREAS. A SPECIAL FWD SOUNDING
WAS SENT UP AT MIDNIGHT AND INDICATED STRONG LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL
AND SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE LAYER. STRONG WAA CONTINUED IN THE
WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE SQUALL LINE. IF THIS ACTIVITY WERE TO BECOME MORE STRUCTURALLY
ORGANIZED...CONCERNS REGARDING SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WOULD
INCREASE THROUGH SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE DECIDED TO
MONITOR THESE TRENDS DOWN SOUTH AND HAVE ONLY EXTENDED THE CURRENT
TORNADO WATCH IN TIME THROUGH SUNRISE AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND
COORDINATE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER TO DETERMINE IF AN
EXTENSION IN AREA IS NECESSARY. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH
OF THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE LINE OF STORMS WILL SLOW DOWN A
BIT EAST OF I-35 AND PROVIDE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES. PREVIOUS RAINFALL IN RECENT WEEKS WILL MAKE A FEW
AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING AND THE PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF MOST OF THE CWA
BY MID-LATE MORNING...THOUGH LINGERING ASCENT ASSOCIATED ALOFT
MAY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY AND FEEL THAT NO EXTENSION IN TIME WILL
BE NEEDED. CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS DEEP WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OCCURS THROUGH THE LOWEST
5OOO FEET WHICH SHOULD HELP TRANSFER DOWN STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THIS...COMBINED WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 TO INCREASE AS THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CAA MOVE INTO THOSE AREAS. WE
HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM-4 PM TODAY FOR THOSE
AREAS AND THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED EAST LATER THIS MORNING IF
THE SYSTEM IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. DESPITE
THE SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70
DEGREES AS CAA COUNTERS ANY WARMING EFFECTS FROM INSOLATION. THE
INTENSE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY OF EASTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AND TEMPERATURES COOLING READILY UNDERNEATH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. DESPITE THE RAINFALL AND RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS...WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN UP TO 10 MPH OR MORE AND
SHOULD LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION.

IN THE WAKE OF OUR DEPARTING SYSTEM...STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH RESIDUAL CAA CONTINUING...HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
NOT WARM UP AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD EXPECT. HIGHS WILL WARM ONLY TO
BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES WITH CLEAR NIGHTS ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 40 DEGREES WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSCEND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND TOWARD NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE WILL
ASSIST ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THOUGH LIFT WILL OCCUR WITH BOTH
FEATURES...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AND NOT OVERLY RICH
AS THE GULF WILL HAVE NOT HAD MUCH OF A CHANCE TO RETURN BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WE WILL CONTINUE ADVERTISING LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE AN EFFICIENT SYSTEM FOR
RAINFALL PRODUCTION.

WINDS DO SETTLE DOWN SUNRISE SUNDAY AND WILL BE CLOSE TO A FIRST
FREEZE OR FROST POSSIBLY FOR OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AS WE APPROACH THE END OF OUR GROWING
SEASON. OTHERWISE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS WINDS RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE UP WITH HIGHS STILL GENERALLY REMAINING STATIC IN THE
60S.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1148 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015/

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...TIMING THE SQUALL LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING
AREA TAF SITES IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

THE LINE OF STORMS NEAR ABILENE AT 1130 PM/0530 UTC WAS MOVING
EAST AT 35 TO 40 MPH. THIS PUTS THE LINE ON PACE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE DFW AREA FROM 09 TO 11Z OR 3 TO 5 AM CST. THE LINE OF STORMS
STILL APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. KEPT 25
GUSTING 40 KTS IN THE TAFS FOR THE SQUALL LINE...BUT THE WINDS MAY
BE STRONGER. WE WILL BE ABLE TO ASSESS THE INTENSITY OF THE SQUALL
LINE AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE DFW AREA...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
STRONG WHEN IT ARRIVES.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE INTENSITY OF THE WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SQUALL LINE.
BY 12Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW
15 KTS BUT REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS VFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  47  70  48  69 /  40   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              68  44  70  46  71 /  50   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             65  45  66  45  66 / 100  10   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            68  44  69  44  68 /  30   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          67  45  68  46  67 /  50   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            69  48  69  49  69 /  50   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           67  46  68  47  68 /  90   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         66  47  69  48  70 /  90   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            67  45  70  47  71 /  60   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  43  70  44  68 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ094-095-104>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-159>162-175.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ100-101-115-116-129-130-141>143.

&&

/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
424 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-181030-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
424 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS MORNING. A FEW
NON-SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...A
FEW TORNADOES...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. POCKETS OF FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY.

GUSTY NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE THROUGH MID MORNING. AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY
NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH BY
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS MORNING.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
514 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE DALLAS             32.75N  96.76W
11/17/2015                   DALLAS             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            OVERTURNED 18 WHEELER ON SOUTH BOUND I-45 AT OVERTON