Alert archive / Oklahoma / Tornado Warnings in 2015

Tornado Warning 140, NWS Norman, OK

November 16, 2015Ellis County, Harper County, Woodward County, Oklahoma

NWS Norman, OK issued this tornado warning at Nov 16, 2015, 9:15 PM CST for Ellis County, Harper County, Woodward County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 30 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Nov 16, 2015, 9:15 PM CST (03:15 UTC)
Expired: Nov 16, 2015, 9:45 PM CST
In force: 30 min
Issued by: NWS Norman, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Radar indicated
Hail: 1.75 in

Counties Ellis County, OK, Harper County, OK, Woodward County, OK

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Nov 16, 9:46 PM CST	TSTM WND DMG	5 Wnw Fort Supply, OK	FIVE POWERPOLES BROKEN AT THE BASE.
Nov 16, 9:46 PM CST	TORNADO	5 Wnw Fort Supply, OK	FIVE POWERPOLES BROKEN AT THE BASE. SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO IN THE AREA.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this tornado warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Nov 16, 8:17 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 3.3 hours before the alert went out and 118 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 994 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -42 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 812 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 63 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 351 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 399 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 2.5
Supercell composite: 11.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

566 
WFUS54 KOUN 170315
TOROUN
OKC045-059-153-170345-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0140.151117T0315Z-151117T0345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
915 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
  NORTHWESTERN WOODWARD COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
  SOUTHERN HARPER COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 945 PM CST
    
* AT 915 PM CST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WERE LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTH OF LAVERNE AND 7 MILES SOUTH
  OF MAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. DAMAGE HAS BEEN CONFIRMED
  WITH THE STORMS.

  HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE 
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BUFFALO...FORT SUPPLY...MAY...SELMAN AND CATESBY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A STORM SHELTER... SAFE ROOM OR AN INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A
MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3689 9972 3684 9931 3682 9930 3681 9929
      3644 9970 3648 9997
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 214DEG 34KT 3651 9985 3650 9975 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

..SPEG.

2 follow-up statements

888 
WWUS54 KOUN 170332
SVSOUN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
932 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

OKC045-153-170339-
/O.CAN.KOUN.TO.W.0140.000000T0000Z-151117T0345Z/
ELLIS OK-WOODWARD OK-
932 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN ELLIS AND NORTHWESTERN
WOODWARD COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED INTO HARPER
COUNTY...THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR WOODWARD AND
ELLIS COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3684 9931 3681 9929 3659 9960 3659 9987
      3689 9972
TIME...MOT...LOC 0329Z 220DEG 36KT 3660 9967 3662 9963 

$$

OKC059-170345-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0140.000000T0000Z-151117T0345Z/
HARPER OK-
932 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN HARPER COUNTY...
    
AT 929 PM CST...SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO WITH A STORM EAST ABOUT
4 MILES EAST OF MAY. RADAR INDICATED TWO STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
A TORNADO 4 MILES EAST OF MAY AND 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT
SUPPLY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS 
         LIKELY. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUFFALO...MAY AND SELMAN. 

LAT...LON 3684 9931 3681 9929 3659 9960 3659 9987
      3689 9972
TIME...MOT...LOC 0329Z 220DEG 36KT 3660 9967 3662 9963 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

..SPEG.

616 
WWUS54 KOUN 170339
SVSOUN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
939 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

OKC059-170345-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0140.000000T0000Z-151117T0345Z/
HARPER OK-
939 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CST FOR CENTRAL
HARPER COUNTY...
    
AT 938 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SELMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. PEOPLE IN AND NEAR SELMAN
SHOULD TAKE SHELTER NOW!

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS 
         LIKELY. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUFFALO AND SELMAN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3684 9931 3681 9929 3664 9955 3665 9974
      3689 9968
TIME...MOT...LOC 0338Z 206DEG 47KT 3674 9957 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

..SPEG.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this tornado warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Norman, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this tornado warning went out at Nov 16, 8:31 PM CST, 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 16, 8:31 PM CST, 44 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
831 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO SLOW POPS AND INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH 540.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD AS
THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT DO THE SAME. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
STORM IS JUST ABOUT TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN ELLIS COUNTY, AND IS
CURRENTLY TORNADO WARNED BY AMA. EXPECT A FEW MORE DISCRETE CELLS
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN OK FROM AROUND 4-6Z.
FUTURE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IF THE DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE LAGS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE MAXIMIZED AROUND 06Z AS STRONG NOCTURNAL LLJ DEVELOPS
ACROSS OK, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SW OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. BASED ON HIRES SOLUTIONS, AND CURRENT EASTWARD PROGRESSION,
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER WESTERN OK AND
WESTERN N TX WILL BE NOW THROUGH 08Z. AS STORMS MERGE INTO A LINE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL OK, THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL DECREASE. HOWEVER, A SEVERE WIND THREAT (QLCS) MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 10-11Z FOR OUR FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  54  64  40 /  40 100  20  10
HOBART OK         69  48  61  39 /  30  80  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  53  66  43 /  60  90  10  10
GAGE OK           72  44  56  35 /  40  90  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  58  65  39 /  50 100  30  20
DURANT OK         66  59  66  45 /  90 100  60  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

03/03

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 16, 6:27 PM CST, 2 hours 48 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-180030-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
627 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE ENHANCED RISK IS LOCATED WEST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD
TO NORMAN TO RINGLING... INCLUDING WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A SLIGHT
RISK SURROUNDS THE ENHANCED RISK.

TIMING...
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES BETWEEN THROUGH 7 PM...MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AROUND 8 PM. STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO A LINE
THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND
THEN MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AROUND 1
TO 2 AM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. THE RISK OF TORNADOES WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS STORMS
MERGE INTO A SQUALL LINE.

DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS TODAY AHEAD OF A STOUT UPPER
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT... INITIALLY... ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DURING THE EVENING
HOURS... STORMS WILL MERGE INTO A SQUALL LINE... ADVANCING
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE EXITING COLD
FRONT. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AND CHANCES WILL END RATHER
QUICKLY AS DRIER... COOLER... MORE STABLE AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE
REGION.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Nov 16, 8:21 PM CST, 54 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
821 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

OKZ009-170245-
ELLIS OK-
821 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL ELLIS COUNTY UNTIL
845 PM CST...

AT 820 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF
GLAZIER TEXAS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM WILL APPROACH
ELLIS COUNTY OKLAHOMA BEFORE 9 PM. BE ALERT FOR THE APPROACH OF THIS
STORM IN THE SHATTUCK AREA AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

LAT...LON 3644 10000 3623 9979 3612 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0216Z 231DEG 34KT 3610 10027

..SPEG.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Norman, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 16, 8:21 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Ellis	24 min
Nov 16, 8:42 PM CST	Tornado Warning	OUN	Ellis	33 min
Nov 16, 9:36 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Beckham, Greer, Harmon	39 min
Nov 16, 9:45 PM CST	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	OUN	Harper, Woods	33 min
Nov 16, 9:55 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Beckham, Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Kiowa, Washita	50 min
Nov 16, 9:56 PM CST	Tornado Warning	OUN	Harper	49 min
Nov 16, 10:34 PM CST	Tornado Warning	OUN	Harper	26 min
Nov 16, 10:35 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Beckham, Custer, Greer, Kiowa, Washita	40 min
Nov 16, 11:14 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Washita	46 min
Nov 16, 11:21 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Jackson, Tillman	39 min
Nov 16, 11:23 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Blaine, Dewey, Harper, Major, Woods, Woodward	37 min
Nov 16, 11:25 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Custer, Kingfisher, Washita	50 min
Nov 16, 11:48 PM CST	Areal Flood Advisory	OUN	Greer	57 min
Nov 16, 11:59 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Alfalfa, Blaine, Major, Woods	31 min
Nov 17, 12:10 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Alfalfa, Major	35 min
Nov 17, 12:13 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Blaine, Canadian, Garfield, Kingfisher, Major	47 min
Nov 17, 12:17 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Comanche, Cotton, Tillman	43 min
Nov 17, 12:30 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Garfield, Grant	30 min
Nov 17, 12:34 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Caddo, Comanche, Cotton, Grady, Stephens, Tillman	41 min
Nov 17, 12:59 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Garfield, Grant, Kay, Kingfisher, Logan, Noble and 1 more	46 min
Nov 17, 1:07 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Cotton	23 min
Nov 17, 1:20 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Canadian, Grady, Oklahoma	40 min
Nov 17, 1:25 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Cotton, Jefferson, Stephens	50 min
Nov 17, 1:45 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Kay, Lincoln, Logan, Noble, Payne	45 min
Nov 17, 2:09 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Carter, Cleveland, Garvin, Grady, Jefferson, Love and 3 more	51 min
Nov 17, 2:27 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Kay	33 min
Nov 17, 2:35 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Cleveland, Lincoln, McClain, Oklahoma, Payne, Pottawatomie	25 min
Nov 17, 2:57 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Carter, Love, Murray, Pontotoc	48 min
Nov 17, 3:08 AM CST	Wind Advisory	OUN	Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Kiowa, Tillman	15 hr
Nov 17, 4:01 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Atoka, Bryan, Coal, Hughes, Johnston, Marshall	44 min
Nov 17, 4:47 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Atoka, Bryan, Coal	43 min

Nearby

Tornado Warnings in Oklahoma, 2015 Every tornado warning in 2015 Tornadoes in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.