Severe Thunderstorm Warning 247, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
544 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MID EVENING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES TUESDAY MORNING
WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AS A LOW APPROACHES THE AREA...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REACHED THE
70S AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE PANHANDLES TO
BE PRIMED FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.
SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO QUARTER
SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CAPE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1600J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
IS LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. HIRES MODELS ARE
INDICATING THESE DISCRETE CELLS WILL TURN INTO A QLCS LATE THIS
EVENING AND THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE PANHANDLES BY
MIDNIGHT IF IT FOLLOWS THE TEXAS TECH WRF. IF IT FOLLOWS THE
HRRR...THE LINE WILL FORM EAST OF THE AREA.

ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL SEE WRAP AROUND PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS PART OF THE EVENT NOW
AND ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH TOTALS UP TO ONE HALF
INCH...MOSTLY IN THE NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN TUESDAY TO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE SO VISIBILITIES MAY
DROP WHEN SNOW IS FALLING. THESE VALUES ARE CURRENTLY LOWER THAN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BUT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF
VISIBILITY DROPS LOW ENOUGH.

AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY ARE LOOKING TO BE DRY. TEMPS
SHOULD BE AROUND SEASONAL VALUES EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY WHEN A DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND COOLS TEMPS FOR THE DAY BUT THE RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING TEMPS BACK UP BY SUNDAY.

BEAT

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

15/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
239 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-171200-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
239 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE AREA WIDE...THE GREATEST THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM CLAUDE TO SPEARMAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AN INCH OR LESS COULD FALL.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS WILL LIKELY
BE ACTIVATED THROUGH THE EVENING.

BEAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
522 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     HAIL             TYRONE                  36.96N 101.07W
11/16/2015  M1.75 INCH       TEXAS              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500751

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
524 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

OKZ001-170015-
CIMARRON OK-
524 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CIMARRON COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM CST...

AT 524 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTH OF BOISE CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL
CIMARRON COUNTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3699 10221 3679 10248 3681 10277 3700 10270
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 208DEG 48KT 3688 10254

SIMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
528 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     HAIL             TYRONE                  36.96N 101.07W
11/16/2015  E1.75 INCH       TEXAS              OK   PUBLIC

            HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS FELL IN TYRONE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500752

FENNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
612 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NNW PAMPA             35.61N 101.00W
11/16/2015  M75 MPH          GRAY               TX   AWOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500753

FENNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
616 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SW DALHART            36.03N 102.55W
11/16/2015  M68 MPH          HARTLEY            TX   ASOS

            SOUTH WINDS OF 42 MPH WITH MEASURED GUSTS UP TO 68 MPH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500754

FENNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
618 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     HAIL             4 NNE WAYSIDE           34.84N 101.51W
11/16/2015  M1.75 INCH       ARMSTRONG          TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WAS REPORTED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500755

FENNER