Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Lubbock, TX
NWS Lubbock, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Nov 16, 2015, 4:35 PM CST for Swisher County, Texas. It was in force for 25 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 16, 2015, 4:35 PM CST (22:35 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 16, 2015, 5:00 PM CST
- In force
- 25 min
- Issued by
- NWS Lubbock, TX
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Hail
- 1.0 in
- Wind
- 60.0 mph
County Swisher County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 1:00 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | 8 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 78 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 867 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 33 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 88 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 158 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Nov 16, 2:48 PM CST, 1 hour 47 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 16, 2:48 PM CST, 1 hour 47 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 248 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015 .SHORT TERM... EARLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WRN NM...WRN SOUTH PLAINS...AND WRN PANHANDLE GENERALLY HAVING DIFFICULTY STRENGTHENING. EVOLUTION PER RADAR SUGGESTS SHEAR OVERCOMING MODEST INSTABILITY RESULTING IN STORMS UNABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR UPDRAFTS. THIS MAY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LIFT MOVES OVER AREA OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG AND EAST OF I-27. THIS WILL KEEP A WINDOW OPEN NOT JUST FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THAT WINDOW WILL BEGIN TO SHUT WITH SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON STIFF SOUTH WINDS AS WELL AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT FROM APPROACH OF THE VERY STRONG SYSTEM WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ONGOING UNTIL PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE FCST AREA...LIKELY AROUND MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED ATTM. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO WIND POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY. MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE NWRN PANHANDLE AT 12Z TO NWRN OKLA AND SCNTL/SWRN KS BY END OF DAY. HEIGHT GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE LOW AND MAGNITUDE OF PROGGED MID LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE 700 MB TROUGH SUPPORT WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DO NOT EXPECT MIXING TO BE TERRIBLY EFFICIENT. THIS SETUP IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM LAST WEEK. MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME PERIODS UP TO 35 MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. FINALLY...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH LIKELY DECREASING A BIT WITH SUNSET. WINDS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN JUST OVER THE 30 MPH MARK ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ADVISORY ATTM WITH THE LIKELIHOOD THAT IT WILL BE ALLOW TO EXPIRE ON TIME. .LONG TERM... AFTER AN EVENTFUL START TO THE WEEK...QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE IN THE LONG TERM. NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE BY TUES NIGHT AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST OF A GRADUAL COOL DOWN AS HIGHS TREND NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE. A SECOND AND MORE STOUT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRI EVENING/SAT MORNING WHICH WILL MAKE WAY FOR A COLD SUNDAY. MOST AREAS AS OF NOW ARE EXPECTED TO SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY SUNDAY MORNING THANKS TO A SURFACE HIGH HELPING TO COOL DOWN ALREADY COLD TEMPS. BY NEXT WEEK A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE A SURFACE LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST HELPING TO KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IN TEMPS...THOUGH TEMPS SHOULD STILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ021-022-027. && 07/51
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 16, 11:12 AM CST, 5 hours 23 minutes before
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</html>The office that day
Everything else NWS Lubbock, TX issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 4:18 AM CST | Wind Advisory | LUB | Bailey, Castro, Parmer | 13 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2015Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.