Mesoscale Discussion 282

Issued

Mar 19, 2012, 1:37 AM CDT (06:37 UTC)

Expired

Mar 19, 2012, 3:00 AM CDT

In force

83 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 110 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 83Mar 19, 1:55 AM CDT
• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 84Mar 19, 4:40 AM CDT

017 
ACUS11 KWNS 190637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190637 
OKZ000-TXZ000-190800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0282
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE ERN TX PNHDL/NW TX INTO WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81...

VALID 190637Z - 190800Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81
CONTINUES.

TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL
WATCHES EAST OF WW 81...WHICH COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

INTENSITY OF THE ONGOING SQUALL LINE ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS HAS PLATEAUED...IF NOT GENERALLY
WEAKENED SOME...DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO.  HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST
PORTION OF THE LINE APPEARS TO BE THE SEGMENT NOW EAST OF PLAINVIEW
AND LUBBOCK...WHERE AN ASSOCIATED COLD POOL HAS ACCELERATED EAST
NORTHEASTWARD AT UP TO 30 KT...IN THE PRESENCE OF 40+ KT DEEP LAYER
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW.  45-50+ KT PEAK SURFACE GUSTS HAVE
BEEN RECORDED WITH THIS PORTION OF THE LINE... WHICH MAY MAINTAIN
CURRENT INTENSITY ACROSS THE CHILDRESS AREA INTO SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA BETWEEN NOW AND 08-10Z.

ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
STRONGEST DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  GIVEN THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF MODERATE
BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CAPE AHEAD OF THE LINE INTO THE
CHILDRESS/ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO AREAS...POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR
SQUALL LINE INTENSIFICATION AND ANOTHER EASTWARD SURGING COLD POOL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT ONE.

ALTHOUGH...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SPORADIC LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VERY STRONG
BENEATH A 50-60 KT SOUTHERLY PRE-SQUALL LINE LOW-LEVEL JET...THE
RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..KERR.. 03/19/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   31830200 32740152 33680105 34500103 35160083 35910021
            36279987 35749908 34419928 33229922 31629978 30970107
            31170204 31830200

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.