Alert archive / Oklahoma / Tornado Watches in 2012

Tornado Watch 88

March 19, 20127 counties in Arkansas; 12 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Mar 19, 2012, 6:53 PM CDT for 7 counties in Arkansas; 12 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 19, 2012, 6:53 PM CDT (23:53 UTC)
Expired
Mar 20, 2012, 12:00 AM CDT
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt

Counties Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Madison County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Washington County, AR, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

16 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 19, 7:10 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningTSAHaskell, Latimer, Pittsburg6 hr
Mar 19, 7:16 PM CDTTornado WarningTSAHaskell, Muskogee29 min
Mar 19, 7:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACherokee, Haskell, Muskogee, Sequoyah42 min
Mar 19, 7:56 PM CDTTornado WarningTSACherokee, Haskell, Muskogee, Sequoyah34 min
Mar 19, 8:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAChoctaw, Pittsburg, Pushmataha43 min
Mar 19, 8:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAHaskell, Latimer, Muskogee, Pittsburg, Pushmataha61 min
Mar 19, 8:32 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAAdair, Cherokee, Sequoyah28 min
Mar 19, 8:34 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningTSAAdair, Cherokee, Haskell, Muskogee, Sequoyah6 hr
Mar 19, 8:51 PM CDTTornado WarningTSAAdair, Cherokee, Sequoyah39 min
Mar 19, 9:04 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAAdair, Cherokee, Delaware, Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore and 2 more41 min
Mar 19, 9:33 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningTSAChoctaw, Latimer, LeFlore, Pushmataha6 hr
Mar 19, 9:41 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningTSABenton, Crawford, Sebastian, Washington6 hr
Mar 19, 9:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACrawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian, Washington61 min
Mar 19, 9:57 PM CDTTornado WarningTSACrawford, Washington33 min
Mar 19, 10:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSABenton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more64 min
Mar 19, 10:54 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningTSACherokee, Craig, Delaware, McIntosh, Mayes, Muskogee and 2 more12 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 172 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2012-03-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 631 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2012-03-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 246 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
631 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-118 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
721 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
246 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
217 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

505 
WWUS20 KWNS 192350
SEL8
SPC WW 192350
ARZ000-OKZ000-200500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 88
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
       EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT FROM 655 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF MCALESTER OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 85...WW 86...WW 87...

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN FORMING IN THE WARM
SECTOR ACROSS EASTERN OK...WHERE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENT CAPE ARE PRESENT.  THEREFORE...HAVE UPGRADED THE ONGOING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO A TORNADO WATCH FOR THIS REGION.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.


...HART

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 19, 3:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Crawford, Sebastian, Washington95 min
Mar 19, 4:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more5 hr
Mar 19, 6:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Madison, Sebastian, Washington58 min
Mar 18, 7:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Beckham, Ellis, Greer, Harmon, Jackson and 2 more53 min
Mar 18, 9:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Ellis, Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Roger Mills and 2 more35 min
Mar 18, 11:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Ellis, Harper53 min
Mar 19, 1:37 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Roger Mills83 min
Mar 19, 1:56 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche and 19 more4 hr
Mar 19, 3:34 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Comanche and 21 more86 min
Mar 19, 10:05 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Cleveland, Coal, Garvin and 15 more115 min
Mar 19, 2:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBryan, Love, Marshall90 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2012Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2012Every tornado watch in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.