Severe Thunderstorm Watch 86

Issued

Mar 19, 2012, 4:20 PM CDT (21:20 UTC)

Expired

Mar 19, 2012, 8:50 PM CDT

In force

5 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

1.5 in

Strongest gust expected

60 kt

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 127 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

20%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

5%

Ten or more severe wind reports

30%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

30%

Ten or more severe hail reports

30%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

20%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

70%

• Mesoscale Discussion 290Mar 19, 2:15 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 293Mar 19, 3:55 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 295Mar 19, 6:32 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 298Mar 19, 8:48 PM CDT

054 
WWUS20 KWNS 192120
SEL6  
SPC WW 192120
ARZ000-OKZ000-200500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 86
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
420 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
       EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM 420 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF DURANT OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 85...

DISCUSSION...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH TX WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO EASTERN OK AND EVENTUALLY
INTO NORTHWEST AR THIS EVENING.  STORMS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR ACTIVITY FORMING IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WOULD REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO TORNADO WATCH.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...HART

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Oklahoma, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Arkansas, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.