Severe Thunderstorm Watch 81

Issued

Mar 18, 2012, 10:50 PM CDT (03:50 UTC)

Expired

Mar 19, 2012, 9:50 AM CDT

In force

11 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

2 in

Strongest gust expected

60 kt

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 41 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

20%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

5%

Ten or more severe wind reports

70%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

30%

Ten or more severe hail reports

70%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

20%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

90%

• Mesoscale Discussion 277Mar 18, 7:37 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 279Mar 18, 9:10 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 280Mar 18, 10:09 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 282Mar 19, 1:37 AM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 286Mar 19, 4:13 AM CDT

563 
WWUS20 KWNS 190349
SEL1
SPC WW 190349
TXZ000-191000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 81...RESENT
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       WEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1050 PM UNTIL
500 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF FORT STOCKTON TEXAS TO 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
CHILDRESS TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AS THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE RETREATING DRYLINE.  STORMS ARE IN
AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
AMPLE LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT ALSO WITH CONSIDERABLE CAP.  GIVEN
THE LINEAR NATURE OF THE FORCING AND THE STRENGTHENING CAP...BELIEVE
THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CAP STRENGTH AND STORM TRENDS FOR
POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO RISK.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.


...HART

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.