Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 537
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Oct 26, 2021, 7:23 PM CDT for 11 counties in Oklahoma; 51 counties in Texas. It was in force for 8 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 26, 2021, 7:23 PM CDT (00:23 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 27, 2021, 3:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 65 kt
All 62 counties
Caddo County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Grady County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Archer County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Clay County, TX, Coke County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Concho County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Erath County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Foard County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Irion County, TX, Jack County, TX, Jones County, TX, Kent County, TX, Kimble County, TX, King County, TX, Knox County, TX, Mason County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Menard County, TX, Mills County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Montague County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Runnels County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Upton County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX, Young County, TX
The radar
The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 20%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 5%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 70%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 30%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 60%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 60%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 95%
Warnings issued inside it
22 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 7:41 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LUB | Garza, Kent | 34 min |
| Oct 26, 7:53 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LUB | Dickens, Kent, King, Stonewall | 37 min |
| Oct 26, 8:19 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LUB | Cottle, King | 56 min |
| Oct 26, 8:42 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | OUN | Foard, Hardeman, Knox | 78 min |
| Oct 26, 9:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | OUN | Jackson, Tillman | 65 min |
| Oct 26, 9:22 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | OUN | Harmon, Jackson, Tillman | 38 min |
| Oct 26, 9:59 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | OUN | Comanche, Greer, Jackson, Kiowa, Tillman | 46 min |
| Oct 26, 10:12 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | OUN | Comanche, Cotton, Tillman | 33 min |
| Oct 26, 10:33 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SJT | Irion, Sterling, Tom Green | 42 min |
| Oct 26, 10:42 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | OUN | Caddo, Comanche, Cotton, Kiowa, Tillman, Washita | 63 min |
| Oct 26, 10:43 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SJT | Coke, Nolan, Sterling | 47 min |
| Oct 26, 11:00 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SJT | Coke, Irion, Sterling, Tom Green | 45 min |
| Oct 26, 11:02 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SJT | Fisher, Jones, Nolan, Taylor | 43 min |
| Oct 26, 11:22 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | OUN | Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Garvin, Grady, McClain and 1 more | 38 min |
| Oct 26, 11:36 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SJT | Callahan, Jones, Shackelford, Taylor | 39 min |
| Oct 26, 11:44 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SJT | Irion, Tom Green | 46 min |
| Oct 26, 11:50 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SJT | Callahan, Coleman, Runnels, Taylor, Tom Green | 55 min |
| Oct 26, 11:52 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | OUN | Blaine, Canadian, Cleveland, Garvin, Grady, Kingfisher and 3 more | 53 min |
| Oct 26, 11:52 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SJT | Jones, Shackelford | 53 min |
| Oct 27, 12:17 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SJT | Callahan, Jones, Shackelford, Taylor | 58 min |
| Oct 27, 1:07 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FWD | Jack, Palo Pinto, Stephens, Young | 53 min |
| Oct 27, 1:44 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FWD | Jack, Palo Pinto, Parker, Wise | 61 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 0.4 hours before the alert went out and 217 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 4696 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 56 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 7 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 98 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
757
WWUS20 KWNS 270021
SEL7
SPC WW 270021
OKZ000-TXZ000-270800-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 537
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
725 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Oklahoma
West Central Texas
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 725 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the dryline
over west Texas this evening and spread eastward across the watch
area. The primary threat will be damaging winds and large hail in
the most intense cells, although an isolated tornado or two cannot
be ruled out.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west of Junction
TX to 40 miles west northwest of Chickasha OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 536...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24025.
...HartSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 8:59 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alfalfa, Blaine, Custer, Dewey, Ellis, Harper and 4 more | 91 min |
| Oct 26, 9:37 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beckham, Caddo, Comanche, Cotton, Grady, Greer and 5 more | 83 min |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Cleveland, Coal, Creek and 31 more | 66 min |
| Oct 26, 10:26 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atoka, Bryan, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland, Coal and 26 more | 7 hr |
| Oct 27, 1:13 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atoka, Bryan, Coal, Creek, Hughes, Johnston and 15 more | 2 hr |
| Oct 27, 1:32 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Anderson, Bastrop, Bell, Bexar, Blanco, Bosque and 48 more | 6 hr |
| Oct 27, 1:59 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Collin, Cooke, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Grayson and 8 more | 91 min |
| Oct 27, 5:13 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar, Brazos, Burleson and 22 more | 2 hr |
| Oct 27, 7:36 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chambers, Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange and 1 more | 84 min |
| Oct 27, 7:55 AM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Angelina, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Hardin and 16 more | 9 hr |
| Oct 27, 9:08 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange, Tyler | 97 min |
| Oct 27, 9:44 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bowie, Cass, Harrison, Marion, Panola, Shelby | 2 hr |
| Oct 27, 10:08 AM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Harrison, Marion, Panola, Shelby | 5 hr |
| Oct 27, 10:59 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Newton | 91 min |
| Oct 27, 12:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bowie, Cass, Harrison, Marion, Panola, Shelby | 83 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Oklahoma, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.