Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1906

October 26, 202111 counties in Oklahoma; 32 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 26, 2021, 9:37 PM CDT for 11 counties in Oklahoma; 32 counties in Texas. It was in force for 83 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 26, 2021, 9:37 PM CDT (02:37 UTC)
Expired
Oct 26, 2021, 11:00 PM CDT
In force
83 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 537
All 43 counties

Beckham County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Grady County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Archer County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Clay County, TX, Coke County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Concho County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Foard County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Irion County, TX, Jones County, TX, King County, TX, Knox County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Menard County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Runnels County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX, Young County, TX

The radar

The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 2.6 hours before the alert went out and 217 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-10-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-10-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 7 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
4696 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
7 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
98 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

358 
ACUS11 KWNS 270238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270237 
OKZ000-TXZ000-270400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1906
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0937 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Areas affected...Southern Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 537...

Valid 270237Z - 270400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 537
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat should increase across the western half of
ww537 over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Dryline/Pacific front will soon be nudged east as
large-scale forcing continues to overspread the southern Plains.
Convection is growing upscale across northwestern TX as an arcing
squall line is maturing from Hardeman to Kent County along the
boundary. Over the next several hours this evolving linear MCS
should progress northeast across the northern half of ww537.

Farther south, latest IR satellite and radar imagery suggest a
forced line of thunderstorms is emerging along the wind shift from
Upton-Scurry County TX. This activity should steadily advance east,
likely overspreading much of the southwestern portions of the watch
by midnight.

..Darrow.. 10/27/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   30490152 35319969 35329758 30529952 30490152

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 26, 7:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCaddo, Comanche, Cotton, Grady, Greer, Harmon and 5 more8 hr
Oct 26, 8:59 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Blaine, Custer, Dewey, Ellis, Harper and 4 more91 min
Oct 26, 10:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Cleveland, Coal, Creek and 31 more66 min
Oct 26, 10:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtoka, Bryan, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland, Coal and 26 more7 hr
Oct 27, 1:13 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Coal, Creek, Hughes, Johnston and 15 more2 hr
Oct 27, 1:32 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Bastrop, Bell, Bexar, Blanco, Bosque and 48 more6 hr
Oct 27, 1:59 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCollin, Cooke, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Grayson and 8 more91 min
Oct 27, 5:13 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar, Brazos, Burleson and 22 more2 hr
Oct 27, 7:36 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChambers, Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange and 1 more84 min
Oct 27, 7:55 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAngelina, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Hardin and 16 more9 hr
Oct 27, 9:08 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange, Tyler97 min
Oct 27, 9:44 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Cass, Harrison, Marion, Panola, Shelby2 hr
Oct 27, 10:08 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCHarrison, Marion, Panola, Shelby5 hr
Oct 27, 10:59 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCNewton91 min
Oct 27, 12:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Cass, Harrison, Marion, Panola, Shelby83 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.