Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1909

October 27, 202114 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 27, 2021, 1:59 AM CDT for 14 counties in Texas. It was in force for 91 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 27, 2021, 1:59 AM CDT (06:59 UTC)
Expired
Oct 27, 2021, 3:30 AM CDT
In force
91 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 537...539

Counties Collin County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Denton County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hood County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Wise County, TX

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 44 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 19 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-10-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1353 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-10-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 147 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1353 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-69 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1163 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
147 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
323 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
4.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

986 
ACUS11 KWNS 270700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270659 
TXZ000-OKZ000-270830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1909
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

Areas affected...Much of north central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 537...539...

Valid 270659Z - 270830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 537, 539
continues.

SUMMARY...Increasingly widespread severe gusts appear possible
across and northeast of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex through 3-4
AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...To the south of a developing MCV, 50+ kt rear inflow
has developed with an increasingly organized segment of the squall
line, to the southwest of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.  Surface
gusts in excess of 50 kt have already been recorded at Graham and
Abilene within the past hour or so, and the potential for
increasingly widespread severe gusts seems likely to increase as
this activity overspread the Metroplex through 07-09Z.  The boundary
layer across much of north central Texas is seasonably moist and
characterized by moderately large CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, in
the presence of strengthening deep-layer shear and mid/upper forcing
for ascent ahead of the approaching negatively-tilted trough, which
should aid removal of remaining mid-level inhibition.

..Kerr.. 10/27/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   31839753 32309798 32909775 33339779 33569768 33769695
            33729627 33469596 32709589 31839753

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 26, 7:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArcher, Baylor, Brown, Callahan, Clay, Coke and 45 more8 hr
Oct 26, 9:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Baylor, Callahan, Clay, Coke, Coleman and 26 more83 min
Oct 27, 1:32 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Bastrop, Bell, Bexar, Blanco, Bosque and 48 more6 hr
Oct 27, 5:13 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar, Brazos, Burleson and 22 more2 hr
Oct 27, 7:36 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChambers, Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange and 1 more84 min
Oct 27, 7:55 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAngelina, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Hardin and 16 more9 hr
Oct 27, 9:08 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange, Tyler97 min
Oct 27, 9:44 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Cass, Harrison, Marion, Panola, Shelby2 hr
Oct 27, 10:08 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCHarrison, Marion, Panola, Shelby5 hr
Oct 27, 10:59 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCNewton91 min
Oct 27, 12:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Cass, Harrison, Marion, Panola, Shelby83 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.