Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539

October 27, 202154 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Oct 27, 2021, 1:32 AM CDT for 54 counties in Texas. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 27, 2021, 1:32 AM CDT (06:32 UTC)
Expired
Oct 27, 2021, 8:00 AM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 54 counties

Anderson County, TX, Bastrop County, TX, Bell County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Blanco County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Caldwell County, TX, Collin County, TX, Comal County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Delta County, TX, Denton County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Fayette County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Gonzales County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Hays County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Lavaca County, TX, Lee County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, Llano County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Parker County, TX, Rains County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Travis County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Williamson County, TX, Wilson County, TX, Wise County, TX

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
10%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

7 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 27, 1:44 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDJack, Palo Pinto, Parker, Wise61 min
Oct 27, 2:30 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDDenton, Parker, Tarrant, Wise60 min
Oct 27, 2:53 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatFWDDenton37 min
Oct 27, 3:18 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDCollin, Cooke, Denton, Grayson57 min
Oct 27, 4:05 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXBandera, Kendall, Kerr, Medina, Uvalde40 min
Oct 27, 4:08 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXBandera, Kendall, Kerr, Medina, Real, Uvalde52 min
Oct 27, 4:50 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXBexar, Blanco, Comal, Hays, Kendall55 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 67 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-10-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1353 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-10-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 147 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1353 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-69 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1163 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
147 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
323 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
4.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

957 
WWUS20 KWNS 270629
SEL9  
SPC WW 270629
TXZ000-271300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 539
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
130 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northern and Central Texas

* Effective this Wednesday morning from 130 AM until 800 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue generally eastward
overnight across a large part of north/central Texas, including
toward the I-35 corridor and Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. Damaging
winds are the primary concern, but a brief tornado risk may also
exist.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles east northeast
of Sherman TX to 45 miles south southwest of Temple TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 537...WW 538...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
27040.

...Guyer

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 26, 7:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArcher, Baylor, Brown, Callahan, Clay, Coke and 45 more8 hr
Oct 26, 9:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Baylor, Callahan, Clay, Coke, Coleman and 26 more83 min
Oct 27, 1:59 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCollin, Cooke, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Grayson and 8 more91 min
Oct 27, 5:13 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar, Brazos, Burleson and 22 more2 hr
Oct 27, 7:36 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChambers, Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange and 1 more84 min
Oct 27, 7:55 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAngelina, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Hardin and 16 more9 hr
Oct 27, 9:08 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange, Tyler97 min
Oct 27, 9:44 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Cass, Harrison, Marion, Panola, Shelby2 hr
Oct 27, 10:08 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCHarrison, Marion, Panola, Shelby5 hr
Oct 27, 10:59 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCNewton91 min
Oct 27, 12:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Cass, Harrison, Marion, Panola, Shelby83 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.