Mesoscale Discussion 1905

Issued

Oct 26, 2021, 8:59 PM CDT (01:59 UTC)

Expired

Oct 26, 2021, 10:30 PM CDT

In force

91 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Tornado watch 536

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

968 
ACUS11 KWNS 270200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270159 
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-270330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1905
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0859 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Areas affected...portions of western Kansas into northwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 536...

Valid 270159Z - 270330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 536 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 0536.
Damaging gusts are the primary severe threats, but large hail and a
tornado or two could also occur with the more dominant, persistent
storms.

DISCUSSION...Multiple linear segments with embedded multicellular
clusters have become established ahead of a merging cold
front/dryline over the past couple of hours across western portions
of Kansas into northwest Oklahoma. A couple instances of large hail
and wind gusts have occurred with the stronger storms. However,
while convective coverage continues to slowly increase, individual
storms have struggled to vigorously organize. Latest RAP forecast
soundings depict persistent convective inhibition in the 850-700 mb
layer, with recent DDC and VNX VWPs showing a relative weakness in
the 2-3 km AGL flow, which is likely inhibiting storms from
acquiring strong mid/low-level rotation. 

Nonetheless, robust kinematics remain in place. The 0124Z DDC VWP
depicts over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH within the surface-1 km layer
alone. Despite the 2-3 km weakness in the shear profile, adequate
directional and ample speed shear exists in the low-levels. When
considering widespread 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, the threat for damaging
gusts, occasional large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two remains
with any storm that manages to become organized and sustained.

..Squitieri.. 10/27/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   35619971 38680019 40040021 40029924 39999861 39689813
            38339806 36399787 35689784 35519889 35619971

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.