Alert archive / Nebraska / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414

August 7, 20217 counties in Iowa; 25 counties in Kansas; 32 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Aug 7, 2021, 6:35 PM CDT for 7 counties in Iowa; 25 counties in Kansas; 32 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 7, 2021, 6:35 PM CDT (23:35 UTC)
Expired
Aug 8, 2021, 1:00 AM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 64 counties

Fremont County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Mills County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Page County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Barton County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Geary County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Marshall County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Morris County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Republic County, KS, Rice County, KS, Riley County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Russell County, KS, Saline County, KS, Smith County, KS, Washington County, KS, Adams County, NE, Butler County, NE, Cass County, NE, Clay County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Fillmore County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Gage County, NE, Hall County, NE, Hamilton County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Merrick County, NE, Nance County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Nuckolls County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Platte County, NE, Polk County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Saline County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Seward County, NE, Thayer County, NE, Washington County, NE, Webster County, NE, York County, NE

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

53 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 7, 6:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDJewell, Smith24 min
Aug 7, 6:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDPolk37 min
Aug 7, 6:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDOsborne, Rooks31 min
Aug 7, 6:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXButler, Colfax, Platte46 min
Aug 7, 6:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatICTRussell58 min
Aug 7, 6:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDJewell, Smith52 min
Aug 7, 6:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXButler, Saunders51 min
Aug 7, 7:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDJewell, Mitchell, Osborne, Smith46 min
Aug 7, 7:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDAdams, Clay, Nuckolls, Webster32 min
Aug 7, 7:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXButler, Saunders46 min
Aug 7, 7:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatICTBarton, Ellsworth, Lincoln, Rice, Russell57 min
Aug 7, 7:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDPolk29 min
Aug 7, 7:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDOsborne, Phillips, Smith39 min
Aug 7, 7:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDClay, Fillmore, Hamilton, York51 min
Aug 7, 7:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatOAXCass, Douglas, Sarpy, Saunders49 min
Aug 7, 7:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDAdams, Clay, Hall, Hamilton, Kearney, Merrick31 min
Aug 7, 8:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDJewell42 min
Aug 7, 8:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDHall, Hamilton, Merrick, Nance, Polk, York50 min
Aug 7, 8:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXButler50 min
Aug 7, 8:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPCloud, Republic41 min
Aug 7, 8:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDPhillips, Smith52 min
Aug 7, 8:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatOAXCass, Sarpy, Saunders22 min
Aug 7, 8:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDAdams, Clay, Hall, Hamilton29 min
Aug 7, 8:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatICTBarton, Ellsworth, Lincoln, McPherson, Rice, Saline65 min
Aug 7, 8:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXSaunders31 min
Aug 7, 8:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatOAXMills, Pottawattamie49 min
Aug 7, 8:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPCloud, Ottawa33 min
Aug 7, 8:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDAdams, Buffalo, Hall, Kearney44 min
Aug 7, 8:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatOAXPottawattamie40 min
Aug 7, 8:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXButler, Saunders35 min
Aug 7, 8:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPClay, Riley, Washington49 min
Aug 7, 8:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDHamilton, Merrick, Polk, York33 min
Aug 7, 9:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDThayer42 min
Aug 7, 9:05 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningOAXPottawattamie4 hr
Aug 7, 9:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPClay, Dickinson, Geary, Morris, Ottawa, Riley52 min
Aug 7, 9:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXGage, Jefferson, Saline51 min
Aug 7, 9:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXMills, Pottawattamie51 min
Aug 7, 9:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDHall, Hamilton, Howard, Merrick33 min
Aug 7, 9:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDMerrick, Nance, Polk30 min
Aug 7, 9:35 PM CDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatOAXPottawattamie3 hr
Aug 7, 9:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXButler, Lancaster, Saunders, Seward22 min
Aug 7, 9:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPClay, Marshall, Pottawatomie, Riley, Washington49 min
Aug 7, 9:44 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningGIDPolk6 hr
Aug 7, 9:49 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatTOPGeary, Lyon, Morris, Pottawatomie, Riley, Wabaunsee41 min
Aug 7, 9:49 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXGage, Jefferson, Johnson, Pawnee41 min
Aug 7, 9:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXCass, Lancaster, Saunders17 min
Aug 7, 9:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDHall, Howard, Merrick17 min
Aug 7, 9:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXButler27 min
Aug 7, 10:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTMcPherson, Reno, Rice26 min
Aug 7, 10:25 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningOAXCass, Lancaster, Otoe, Sarpy, Saunders, Seward2 hr
Aug 7, 10:30 PM CDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyOAXPottawattamie89 min
Aug 7, 10:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXFremont52 min
Aug 7, 11:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXFremont, Mills, Montgomery, Page36 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 11.6 hours before the alert went out and 213 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2021-08-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 971 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2021-08-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -16 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
971 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-177 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1368 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
11 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-16 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
5 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

166 
WWUS20 KWNS 072333
SEL4  
SPC WW 072333
IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-080600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 414
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
635 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southwest Iowa
  Northern Kansas
  Southeast Nebraska

* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 635 PM
  until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will become more numerous this evening
across the watch area, with scattered intense cells expected. 
Damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible in the more organized
clusters.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles south southeast
of Russell KS to 35 miles northwest of Omaha NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 412...WW 413...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 6, 11:54 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLyon, Sioux2 hr
Aug 7, 2:10 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLyon, Osceola2 hr
Aug 7, 11:03 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Black Hawk, Bremer, Buchanan, Butler, Cerro Gordo and 11 more2 hr
Aug 7, 3:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Bremer, Butler, Cerro Gordo, Chickasaw, Clayton and 7 more119 min
Aug 7, 3:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFinney, Gove, Graham, Grant, Gray, Greeley and 18 more86 min
Aug 7, 4:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis, Finney and 26 more7 hr
Aug 7, 6:11 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Comanche, Edwards and 25 more2 hr
Aug 6, 9:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoyd, Cedar, Keya Paha, Knox2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Nebraska, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Kansas, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Iowa, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.