Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Omaha, NE

839 
WWUS53 KOAX 080355
SVSOAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
1055 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

IAC071-NEC097-127-131-080430-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0133.000000T0000Z-210808T0430Z/
Fremont IA-Johnson NE-Nemaha NE-Otoe NE-
1055 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN FREMONT...NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON...NEMAHA AND EASTERN OTOE
COUNTIES...

At 1055 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Nebraska City,
or 30 miles northwest of Tarkio, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Nebraska City, Auburn, Hamburg, Sidney, Peru, Johnson, Cook,
Riverton, Talmage, Lorton, Thurman, Dunbar, Nemaha, Brownville,
Brock, Julian, Camp Catron, 7 Miles South Of Auburn, Waubonsie State
Park and Brownville State Recreation Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4056 9624 4083 9576 4060 9537 4058 9538
      4059 9576 4058 9578 4052 9575 4052 9570
      4056 9568 4055 9565 4052 9566 4051 9569
      4047 9569 4046 9564 4042 9566 4034 9562
      4026 9577 4026 9583
TIME...MOT...LOC 0355Z 316DEG 10KT 4063 9590 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Kern

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
629 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

A complex severe weather scenario has been unfolding this morning,
largely due to the plentiful cloud cover and the convection that
occurred earlier this morning. As we go further into the
afternoon, ML CAPE values are expected to increase to around 3500
J/kg, with effective bulk shear values ranging from 20 to 30 kts
by the time convection gets to eastern Nebraska and southwestern
Iowa. Visible satellite shows developing cumulus in south-central
Nebraska into Kansas, and this area will serve as the starting
point for convection this evening. These storms are expected to
begin after 5 PM in a discrete mode with hail being the primary
threat. Veering low-level wind profiles, and enhanced 0-3 km
shear suggest that there is also a limited tornado threat
associated with the initial cells in that same area. These cells
are then expected to evolve into a larger complex that is
expected to begin pushing ENE into eastern Nebraska after 7 PM. As
this larger complex forms, the main threat evolves into damaging
winds as the storm complex becomes cold-pool dominant. These
storms are expected to move eastward towards the Omaha and Lincoln
metro areas, with the best timing for each being 10 and 11 PM
respectively. These storms will continue east and gradually fizzle
out into the middle of the night in central and eastern Iowa. A
few light rain showers and rumbles of thunder could last until
sunrise Sunday as the back end of the mid-level wave advects
through the area.

Tomorrow morning, those spotty showers are expected to give way to
dry weather and southwesterly winds look to settle in. A return to
mostly sunny skies will aid in the return of some warm
temperatures, with highs in the upper 80's to low 90's are
expected along with heat indices approaching 100 degrees. Monday
is expected to hold even warmer temperatures, with areas near the
South Dakota border reaching over 100 degrees. Heat indices of 100
to 110 are currently slated for that day, and could necessitate a
Heat Advisory if the forecast remains on track. Tuesday a mid-
level shortwave trough is expected to pass through the northern
CONUS and may be the next chance at severe weather for the area,
as it drags a cold front eastward. How far south this frontal zone
extends is still in flux, and the location will likely dictate
what kind of hazards we expect.

Wednesday into the weekend, highs in the 90's on Wed/Thu will give
way to cooler weather Fri/Sat as the mid-level flow transitions
to northwesterly flow. Several shortwave impulses are depicted by
the global deterministic models, and may drive low-end shower and
storm chances in the extended forecast. While nothing looks like a
soaker, some kind of rainfall will be greatly appreciated.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

Mostly VFR conditions are expected however through 07z there is a
good chance of variable conditions in and around thunderstorms
with gusty strong winds. Intermittent MVFR cigs are possible
through 07z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Kern

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
345 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-081045-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
345 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
continuing overnight. Large hail is the primary hazard with the
initial storm development this afternoon, with damaging winds the
more likely severe hazard during the evening and overnight.

Storms are forecast to develop in central Nebraska early this
evening where instability and shear are maximized along an
approaching cold front. These storms are expected to congeal into
a larger cluster, then sweep east across eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa through the late evening and overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Saturday

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon
in parts of far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

Severe thunderstorms are also possible Monday night and Tuesday as
a cold front moves into the Plains.

Otherwise hot and muggy weather will return to the region this
Sunday and Monday. Heat index values are currently expected to
reach or exceed 105 on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1002 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 PM     HAIL             2 SW PLATTSMOUTH        40.98N 95.92W
08/07/2021  E0.75 INCH       CASS               NE   PUBLIC

&&

DEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1005 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1004 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E OMAHA               41.25N 95.93W
08/07/2021                   DOUGLAS            NE   PUBLIC

            WATER UP TO 2-3 FEET DEEP AT 11TH AND
            LEAVENWORTH.

&&

DEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1008 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SSE OMAHA             41.23N 95.99W
08/07/2021                   DOUGLAS            NE   PUBLIC

            CAR STRANDED. WATER AT LEAST KNEE DEEP.

&&

DEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1015 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ESE OMAHA             41.25N 95.95W
08/07/2021                   DOUGLAS            NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING IN THE OMAHA
            METRO AREA. 6 WATER RESCUES HAVE ALREADY
            OCCURRED IN SOUTHEASTERN OMAHA SO FAR.
            SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING WITH FLOWING
            WATER.

&&

DEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1016 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1014 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNW COUNCIL BLUFFS    41.27N 95.88W
08/07/2021                   POTTAWATTAMIE      IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2-4 FEET OF WATER OVER ROADS.

&&

DEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1017 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 WNW OFFUTT AFB        41.13N 95.95W
08/07/2021                   SARPY              NE   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: STREET/ROAD FLOODING;
            STREET/ROAD CLOSED; VEHICLES STRANDED.

&&

DEWALD