Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Omaha, NE

328 
WWUS53 KOAX 080224
SVSOAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
924 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

NEC067-095-151-080300-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0127.000000T0000Z-210808T0300Z/
Jefferson NE-Saline NE-Gage NE-
924 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR JEFFERSON...SOUTH CENTRAL SALINE AND SOUTHWESTERN GAGE
COUNTIES...

At 923 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Alexandria to Fairbury to 4 miles northeast of
Washington, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Emergency management reported trees down in Fairbury along 
         with winds measured up to 53 mph.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Fairbury, Plymouth, Odell, Diller, Western, Daykin, Endicott, Jansen,
Swanton, Reynolds, Steele City, Harbine, Alexandria State Recreation
Area, Rock Creek Station State Historical Park, Cub Creek
Recreational Area, Crystal Springs Campground, Buckley Creek
Recreational Area and Camp Jefferson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4001 9737 4033 9737 4044 9724 4033 9691
      4000 9671
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 222DEG 37KT 4023 9739 4013 9718 3988 9701 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

BLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
629 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

A complex severe weather scenario has been unfolding this morning,
largely due to the plentiful cloud cover and the convection that
occurred earlier this morning. As we go further into the
afternoon, ML CAPE values are expected to increase to around 3500
J/kg, with effective bulk shear values ranging from 20 to 30 kts
by the time convection gets to eastern Nebraska and southwestern
Iowa. Visible satellite shows developing cumulus in south-central
Nebraska into Kansas, and this area will serve as the starting
point for convection this evening. These storms are expected to
begin after 5 PM in a discrete mode with hail being the primary
threat. Veering low-level wind profiles, and enhanced 0-3 km
shear suggest that there is also a limited tornado threat
associated with the initial cells in that same area. These cells
are then expected to evolve into a larger complex that is
expected to begin pushing ENE into eastern Nebraska after 7 PM. As
this larger complex forms, the main threat evolves into damaging
winds as the storm complex becomes cold-pool dominant. These
storms are expected to move eastward towards the Omaha and Lincoln
metro areas, with the best timing for each being 10 and 11 PM
respectively. These storms will continue east and gradually fizzle
out into the middle of the night in central and eastern Iowa. A
few light rain showers and rumbles of thunder could last until
sunrise Sunday as the back end of the mid-level wave advects
through the area.

Tomorrow morning, those spotty showers are expected to give way to
dry weather and southwesterly winds look to settle in. A return to
mostly sunny skies will aid in the return of some warm
temperatures, with highs in the upper 80's to low 90's are
expected along with heat indices approaching 100 degrees. Monday
is expected to hold even warmer temperatures, with areas near the
South Dakota border reaching over 100 degrees. Heat indices of 100
to 110 are currently slated for that day, and could necessitate a
Heat Advisory if the forecast remains on track. Tuesday a mid-
level shortwave trough is expected to pass through the northern
CONUS and may be the next chance at severe weather for the area,
as it drags a cold front eastward. How far south this frontal zone
extends is still in flux, and the location will likely dictate
what kind of hazards we expect.

Wednesday into the weekend, highs in the 90's on Wed/Thu will give
way to cooler weather Fri/Sat as the mid-level flow transitions
to northwesterly flow. Several shortwave impulses are depicted by
the global deterministic models, and may drive low-end shower and
storm chances in the extended forecast. While nothing looks like a
soaker, some kind of rainfall will be greatly appreciated.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

Mostly VFR conditions are expected however through 07z there is a
good chance of variable conditions in and around thunderstorms
with gusty strong winds. Intermittent MVFR cigs are possible
through 07z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Kern

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
345 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-081045-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
345 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
continuing overnight. Large hail is the primary hazard with the
initial storm development this afternoon, with damaging winds the
more likely severe hazard during the evening and overnight.

Storms are forecast to develop in central Nebraska early this
evening where instability and shear are maximized along an
approaching cold front. These storms are expected to congeal into
a larger cluster, then sweep east across eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa through the late evening and overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Saturday

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon
in parts of far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

Severe thunderstorms are also possible Monday night and Tuesday as
a cold front moves into the Plains.

Otherwise hot and muggy weather will return to the region this
Sunday and Monday. Heat index values are currently expected to
reach or exceed 105 on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
831 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             6 NNW RISING CITY       41.28N 97.36W
08/07/2021  E1.25 INCH       BUTLER             NE   PUBLIC

&&

DEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
838 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N MEMPHIS             41.15N 96.43W
08/07/2021                   SAUNDERS           NE   STORM CHASER

            TREE IN MIDDLE OF HIGHWAY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
846 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MEAD                    41.23N 96.48W
08/07/2021                   SAUNDERS           NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES ACROSS HIGHWAY 92. POWER OUT IN
            MEAD.

&&

DEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
855 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 PM     HAIL             2 SSW ELKHORN           41.25N 96.25W
08/07/2021  E0.75 INCH       DOUGLAS            NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

            0.50-0.75 INCH HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
901 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MEMPHIS                 41.09N 96.43W
08/07/2021                   SAUNDERS           NE   STORM CHASER

            TREES DOWN EVERYWHERE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
902 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0902 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MEMPHIS                 41.10N 96.44W
08/07/2021                   SAUNDERS           NE   STORM CHASER

            WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE.

&&

DEWALD