Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Omaha, NE

168 
WWUS53 KOAX 080201
SVSOAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
901 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

IAC155-NEC055-080230-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0125.000000T0000Z-210808T0230Z/
Pottawattamie IA-Douglas NE-
901 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN POTTAWATTAMIE AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

At 901 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over southwestern
Omaha, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

This severe storm will be near...
  Omaha around 905 PM CDT.
  Council Bluffs around 920 PM CDT.
  Underwood around 935 PM CDT.
  Treynor around 940 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
Crescent, Hitchcock Nature Center, Carter Lake, McClelland, Boys
Town, Bennington and Narrows River Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4122 9561 4123 9629 4138 9631 4140 9612
      4139 9594 4142 9593 4146 9565
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 269DEG 33KT 4128 9606 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Kern

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
629 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

A complex severe weather scenario has been unfolding this morning,
largely due to the plentiful cloud cover and the convection that
occurred earlier this morning. As we go further into the
afternoon, ML CAPE values are expected to increase to around 3500
J/kg, with effective bulk shear values ranging from 20 to 30 kts
by the time convection gets to eastern Nebraska and southwestern
Iowa. Visible satellite shows developing cumulus in south-central
Nebraska into Kansas, and this area will serve as the starting
point for convection this evening. These storms are expected to
begin after 5 PM in a discrete mode with hail being the primary
threat. Veering low-level wind profiles, and enhanced 0-3 km
shear suggest that there is also a limited tornado threat
associated with the initial cells in that same area. These cells
are then expected to evolve into a larger complex that is
expected to begin pushing ENE into eastern Nebraska after 7 PM. As
this larger complex forms, the main threat evolves into damaging
winds as the storm complex becomes cold-pool dominant. These
storms are expected to move eastward towards the Omaha and Lincoln
metro areas, with the best timing for each being 10 and 11 PM
respectively. These storms will continue east and gradually fizzle
out into the middle of the night in central and eastern Iowa. A
few light rain showers and rumbles of thunder could last until
sunrise Sunday as the back end of the mid-level wave advects
through the area.

Tomorrow morning, those spotty showers are expected to give way to
dry weather and southwesterly winds look to settle in. A return to
mostly sunny skies will aid in the return of some warm
temperatures, with highs in the upper 80's to low 90's are
expected along with heat indices approaching 100 degrees. Monday
is expected to hold even warmer temperatures, with areas near the
South Dakota border reaching over 100 degrees. Heat indices of 100
to 110 are currently slated for that day, and could necessitate a
Heat Advisory if the forecast remains on track. Tuesday a mid-
level shortwave trough is expected to pass through the northern
CONUS and may be the next chance at severe weather for the area,
as it drags a cold front eastward. How far south this frontal zone
extends is still in flux, and the location will likely dictate
what kind of hazards we expect.

Wednesday into the weekend, highs in the 90's on Wed/Thu will give
way to cooler weather Fri/Sat as the mid-level flow transitions
to northwesterly flow. Several shortwave impulses are depicted by
the global deterministic models, and may drive low-end shower and
storm chances in the extended forecast. While nothing looks like a
soaker, some kind of rainfall will be greatly appreciated.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

Mostly VFR conditions are expected however through 07z there is a
good chance of variable conditions in and around thunderstorms
with gusty strong winds. Intermittent MVFR cigs are possible
through 07z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Kern

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
345 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-081045-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
345 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
continuing overnight. Large hail is the primary hazard with the
initial storm development this afternoon, with damaging winds the
more likely severe hazard during the evening and overnight.

Storms are forecast to develop in central Nebraska early this
evening where instability and shear are maximized along an
approaching cold front. These storms are expected to congeal into
a larger cluster, then sweep east across eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa through the late evening and overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Saturday

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon
in parts of far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

Severe thunderstorms are also possible Monday night and Tuesday as
a cold front moves into the Plains.

Otherwise hot and muggy weather will return to the region this
Sunday and Monday. Heat index values are currently expected to
reach or exceed 105 on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
820 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0819 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 NNE ITHACA            41.19N 96.52W
08/07/2021                   SAUNDERS           NE   STORM CHASER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
827 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     HAIL             WAHOO                   41.22N 96.62W
08/07/2021  M1.50 INCH       SAUNDERS           NE   PUBLIC

&&

DEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
829 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE WAHOO              41.24N 96.60W
08/07/2021  M53 MPH          SAUNDERS           NE   AWOS

&&

DEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
831 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             6 NNW RISING CITY       41.28N 97.36W
08/07/2021  E1.25 INCH       BUTLER             NE   PUBLIC

&&

DEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
838 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N MEMPHIS             41.15N 96.43W
08/07/2021                   SAUNDERS           NE   STORM CHASER

            TREE IN MIDDLE OF HIGHWAY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
846 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MEAD                    41.23N 96.48W
08/07/2021                   SAUNDERS           NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES ACROSS HIGHWAY 92. POWER OUT IN
            MEAD.

&&

DEWALD