Mesoscale Discussion 1439

Issued

Aug 7, 2021, 9:35 PM CDT (02:35 UTC)

Expired

Aug 7, 2021, 11:00 PM CDT

In force

85 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 414

The Omaha radar (KOAX), 135 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

499 
ACUS11 KWNS 080235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080235 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-080400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1439
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0935 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021

Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Kansas....southeastern
Nebraska....southwestern Iowa...northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414...

Valid 080235Z - 080400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414
continues.

SUMMARY...An organized cluster of storms may continue to pose a risk
for severe wind gusts as it progresses eastward, mainly between the
Interstate 80 and 70 corridors of the lower Missouri Valley, through
11 PM-1 AM CDT.  Trends are being monitored for an additional severe
weather watch east of WW 414.

DISCUSSION...An evolving cluster of storms continues to become
better organized with rear inflow intensifying in excess of 50 kt to
the south of a developing MCV now west of Concordia.  Recent surface
gusts to 55+ kts have been observed at Concordia and Salina on the
leading edge of east-northeastward surging convective outflow, with
forward motion now in excess of 40 kt.  New model output suggest
that the MCV will track into the Omaha area through 04-06Z, with the
potential for moist east/southeasterly inflow to maintain vigorous
convective development as far east as the Kansas City area. 
Activity may develop as far northeast as Des Moines, if outflow
associated with warm advection driven storms near the Interstate 80
corridor, across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa, does not
interfere.  South of the Interstate 70 corridor, warmer elevated
mixed-layer air may increasingly tend to suppress thunderstorm
development.

..Kerr.. 08/08/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   41339522 41549468 41669406 41359361 40479368 39409397
            38909535 38819642 38979684 39469663 39809665 40169653
            40649674 41239591 41339522

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.