Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1441

August 7, 20218 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 7, 2021, 11:42 PM CDT for 8 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 93 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 7, 2021, 11:42 PM CDT (04:42 UTC)
Expired
Aug 8, 2021, 1:15 AM CDT
In force
93 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 414

Counties Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS

The radar

The Wichita radar (KICT), 35 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 191 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2021-08-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1803 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2021-08-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 60 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1803 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-63 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1923 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
60 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
157 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
7.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

958 
ACUS11 KWNS 080443
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080442 
KSZ000-OKZ000-080615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1441
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021

Areas affected...Parts of south central and southeastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414...

Valid 080442Z - 080615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414
continues.

SUMMARY...A strong downburst or two may still be possible near and
north through east of the Wichita area between now and 1-2 AM,
before waning.

DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent near outflow boundary intersection
has been sufficient to maintain vigorous thunderstorm development in
a small cluster which appears likely to progress across areas
near/north through east of the Wichita area during the next couple
of hours.  Some further organization and intensification may still
be possible, along the with potential to produce a strong downburst
or two.  However, northeast and east of the Wichita area, latest
observational data and objective analysis suggest that inflow into
convection may become increasing less unstable, and this risk may
wane near or shortly after 07Z..

..Kerr.. 08/08/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36959818 37299825 38009764 38249675 38499627 38569587
            37999580 37689622 37369699 37119743 36959818

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 7, 8:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Harper, Kiowa, Meade and 1 more55 min
Aug 7, 9:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Geary, Jackson, Jefferson and 7 more85 min
Aug 7, 11:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDoniphan86 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.