Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1438
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 7, 2021, 8:20 PM CDT for 7 counties in Kansas; 6 counties in Oklahoma; 17 counties in Texas. It was in force for 55 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 7, 2021, 8:20 PM CDT (01:20 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 7, 2021, 9:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 55 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 412
All 30 counties
Barber County, KS, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Harper County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Meade County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Beaver County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Harper County, OK, Texas County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Bailey County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 156 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 1.3 hours before the alert went out and 156 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2016 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -122 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2104 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 28 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 36 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 133 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.1
The text
As transmitted.
218
ACUS11 KWNS 080121
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080120
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-080215-
Mesoscale Discussion 1438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0820 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021
Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Panhandle...northwestern
Oklahoma...southwestern Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412...
Valid 080120Z - 080215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412
continues.
SUMMARY...Remaining valid portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412
could be locally extended in time for an hour or two. However, the
risk for severe weather appears to be waning, and another watch is
not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Nocturnal southerly low-level intensification should
commence along/east of surface troughing across the Texas South
Plains and Panhandle into southwest Kansas during the next few
hours. This could contribute to maintenance of thunderstorm
activity into late evening, but this probably will largely become
focused to the cool side of a convective outflow enhanced front
which is forecast to stall near/north of Medicine Lodge, KS into
areas near/southwest of Amarillo. To the warm side of this surface
front, increasing inhibition associated with boundary-layer cooling
beneath warm elevated mixed-layer, near/south of the southern
periphery of mid-level troughing turning eastward across the central
Great Plains, likely will result in further waning of convective
development.
..Kerr.. 08/08/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35630233 36480254 36820134 37529991 37739953 38009897
37269785 35690013 33630329 35630233SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 9:35 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Doniphan, Geary, Jackson, Jefferson and 7 more | 85 min |
| Aug 7, 11:19 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Doniphan | 86 min |
| Aug 7, 11:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Chase, Greenwood, Harper, Harvey, Lyon and 2 more | 93 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.