Mesoscale Discussion 1433

Issued

Aug 7, 2021, 2:34 PM MDT (20:34 UTC)

Expired

Aug 7, 2021, 4:00 PM MDT

In force

86 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch likely

Chance of a watch

80%

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412Aug 7, 3:00 PM MDT
• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414Aug 7, 5:35 PM MDT

491 
ACUS11 KWNS 072035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072034 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-072200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1433
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico through portions of the OK/TX
Panhandles and into western Kansas and far southwest Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 072034Z - 072200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next 1
to 2 hours with a threat for large hail and damaging winds. A watch
will likely be needed to cover the threat.

DISCUSSION...A cold front can be seen clearly on visible satellite
imagery, in some places from the presence of surface based cu, but
primarily due the large region of smoke present behind the front.
The front now extends from far southwest Nebraska across far
northwest Kansas to near Raton Mesa. SPC mesoanalysis suggests that
CINH has mostly eroded across the region. In addition, in the last
30 minutes more post frontal convection has been observed across
eastern Colorado and near the Colorado/Kansas border indicating the
deeper ascent is likely spreading eastward and should interact with
the front shortly. Also, high-based convection in far northeast New
Mexico is starting to show more vertical development as temperatures
have risen to near 100 degrees which matches the convective
temperature from forecast soundings. This all points toward more
widespread thunderstorm development in the next 1 to 2 hours. The
stronger storms are expected in western Kansas where instability is
greatest (1500 to 2000 J/kg) and where the strongest deep-layer
shear is present (40-45 kts). In this region, supercells are
expected to congeal into one or more clusters which may pose a
damaging wind threat through the evening hours. A severe
thunderstorm watch is likely by 21Z.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/07/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   34820208 35510296 36870298 38560234 39410115 39699964
            39549931 38579947 36140083 34820208

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.