Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1432
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 7, 2021, 1:29 PM MDT for 5 counties in Colorado. It was in force for 91 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 7, 2021, 1:29 PM MDT (19:29 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 7, 2021, 3:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 91 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Cheyenne County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Lincoln County, CO
The radar
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 90 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -282 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2495 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 18 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 114 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
110
ACUS11 KWNS 071930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071929
KSZ000-COZ000-072100-
Mesoscale Discussion 1432
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021
Areas affected...Portions of eastern Colorado.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 071929Z - 072100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...One or two supercells capable of isolated severe hail and
a damaging wind gust or two are expected to move across eastern
Colorado this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A storm has developed on the cool side of a cold front
moving south across eastern Colorado. As temperatures continue to
warm near this front, expect one or two additional storms to
develop. Deep layer (0-6km) shear is around 40 knots which will
support rotating updrafts with the initial storm in Elbert County
already showing supercell characteristics. Expect this storm and any
additional development (possibly beginning in Lincoln County) to
continue east through the afternoon toward an increasingly unstable
airmass. Initially weak instability but moderate shear may promote
supercells with isolated large hail and perhaps a severe wind gust.
However, as these storms encounter greater instability, stronger
updrafts and upscale growth is anticipated. Eventually a severe
thunderstorm watch may need to be issued for the increasing damaging
wind threat across portions of western Kansas.
..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/07/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 39330428 39810301 39620207 39450177 38780192 38390209
38350310 38590406 39330428SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2:34 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baca, Prowers | 86 min |
| Aug 7, 3:01 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baca, Cheyenne, Kiowa, Prowers | 7 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.