Alert archive / New Mexico / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 219
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 28, 2021, 1:45 PM MDT for 12 counties in New Mexico; 9 counties in Texas. It was in force for 9 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 28, 2021, 1:45 PM MDT (19:45 UTC)
- Expired
- May 28, 2021, 11:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 3 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 21 counties
Chaves County, NM, Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Harding County, NM, Lea County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Union County, NM, Brewster County, TX, Culberson County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX
The radar
The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 156 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 20%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 5%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 40%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 20%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 70%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 60%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 90%
Warnings issued inside it
39 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2:24 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Pecos | 66 min |
| May 28, 2:39 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Pecos | 66 min |
| May 28, 2:59 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ABQ | Guadalupe, San Miguel, Torrance | 61 min |
| May 28, 3:36 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ABQ | Guadalupe, Quay | 54 min |
| May 28, 3:38 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Brewster | 67 min |
| May 28, 3:47 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ABQ | Guadalupe, Torrance | 58 min |
| May 28, 3:54 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Pecos, Reeves | 66 min |
| May 28, 4:02 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ABQ | Guadalupe, Torrance | 43 min |
| May 28, 4:04 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ABQ | Lincoln | 41 min |
| May 28, 4:13 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ABQ | Quay | 47 min |
| May 28, 4:21 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ABQ | Harding, Quay | 54 min |
| May 28, 4:28 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ABQ | De Baca, Guadalupe, Quay | 62 min |
| May 28, 4:36 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ABQ | Guadalupe | 30 min |
| May 28, 4:43 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ABQ | Lincoln | 62 min |
| May 28, 4:46 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Crane, Pecos, Reeves, Upton, Ward | 59 min |
| May 28, 4:58 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ABQ | Quay | 62 min |
| May 28, 5:01 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ABQ | Curry, Quay | 59 min |
| May 28, 5:13 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ABQ | Chaves, Lincoln | 62 min |
| May 28, 5:19 PM MDT | Tornado Warning | ABQ | Lincoln | 41 min |
| May 28, 5:32 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Lea | 58 min |
| May 28, 5:35 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Reeves | 39 min |
| May 28, 5:41 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Crane, Ector, Midland, Upton, Ward, Winkler | 64 min |
| May 28, 5:45 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ABQ | Chaves, Lincoln | 47 min |
| May 28, 5:50 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ABQ | Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Quay, Roosevelt | 55 min |
| May 28, 6:04 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ABQ | Chaves | 56 min |
| May 28, 6:11 PM MDT | Tornado Warning | ABQ | Chaves, Lincoln | 12 min |
| May 28, 6:27 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Loving, Reeves, Ward, Winkler | 63 min |
| May 28, 6:35 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ABQ | Chaves, Lincoln | 55 min |
| May 28, 6:39 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Crane, Pecos, Upton | 51 min |
| May 28, 6:43 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ABQ | Chaves, Curry, Roosevelt | 62 min |
| May 28, 6:54 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Lea | 66 min |
| May 28, 6:57 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ABQ | Chaves | 49 min |
| May 28, 7:38 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Eddy, Lea | 67 min |
| May 28, 8:00 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Lea | 60 min |
| May 28, 8:38 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Eddy, Lea | 67 min |
| May 28, 8:50 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Eddy, Lea | 55 min |
| May 28, 9:40 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Eddy, Lea | 65 min |
| May 28, 9:45 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Andrews, Borden, Dawson, Ector, Gaines, Glasscock and 4 more | 60 min |
| May 28, 10:39 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Lea | 66 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
- Mesoscale Discussion 784 Severe potential...watch possible
- Mesoscale Discussion 785 Severe potential...watch likely
- Mesoscale Discussion 786 Severe potential...watch likely
- Mesoscale Discussion 792 Severe thunderstorm watch 219
- Mesoscale Discussion 793 Severe thunderstorm watch 220
- Mesoscale Discussion 795 Severe thunderstorm watch 219...220...222
- Mesoscale Discussion 797 Severe thunderstorm watch 220...222
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 193 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1694 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -279 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1059 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 45 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 171 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 164 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.2
The text
As transmitted.
275
WWUS20 KWNS 281943
SEL9
SPC WW 281943
NMZ000-TXZ000-290300-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
145 PM MDT Fri May 28 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern New Mexico
Southwest Texas
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until
900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop off the higher
terrain of eastern New Mexico and southwest Texas and drift eastward
across the watch area this afternoon. Supercell storms capable of
very large hail and damaging winds are possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest
of Tucumcari NM to 95 miles south southeast of Marfa TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 218...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29030.
...HartSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 4:10 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Curry | 2 hr |
| May 28, 12:03 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe, Harding and 6 more | 57 min |
| May 28, 5:49 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Curry, Roosevelt | 86 min |
| May 27, 9:24 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Haskell, Jack, Knox and 7 more | 96 min |
| May 28, 1:33 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Collin, Denton, Hunt, Rockwall, Wise | 117 min |
| May 28, 10:16 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Brazos, Brown, Burleson, Coleman and 19 more | 89 min |
| May 28, 11:14 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Brazos, Burleson, Burnet, Comanche and 22 more | 7 hr |
| May 28, 11:49 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brewster, Pecos, Presidio, Terrell | 86 min |
| May 28, 1:33 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Brown, Coke, Coleman, Concho and 35 more | 117 min |
| May 28, 2:41 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Andrews, Brown, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crane and 20 more | 8 hr |
| May 28, 2:42 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Brazos, Brown, Burleson, Burnet, Comanche and 12 more | 93 min |
| May 28, 4:54 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco and 29 more | 96 min |
| May 28, 5:20 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco and 32 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Mexico, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.