Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 795
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 28, 2021, 8:12 PM MDT for Lea County, New Mexico; 6 counties in Texas. It was in force for 93 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 28, 2021, 8:12 PM MDT (02:12 UTC)
- Expired
- May 28, 2021, 9:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 93 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 219...220...222
Counties Lea County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Terry County, TX
The radar
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 2.2 hours before the alert went out and 152 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2460 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -89 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1075 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 55 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 59 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 267 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 2.7
- Supercell composite
- 18.5
The text
As transmitted.
331
ACUS11 KWNS 290212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290212
TXZ000-NMZ000-290345-
Mesoscale Discussion 0795
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0912 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021
Areas affected...Parts of southeastern/east central New Mexico and
adajcent western Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 219...220...222...
Valid 290212Z - 290345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 219, 220,
222 continues.
SUMMARY...An organized convective system may begin to undergo rapid
weakening as it progresses east of the southern New Mexico border
area within the next hour or so, but strong surface gusts may be
slower to diminish along remnant southeastward advancing outflow.
DISCUSSION...A well-defined MCV has developed, with 50+ kt
southeasterly rear inflow to its south, progressing southeast of the
Clovis, NM vicinity, and will approach the Lubbock, TX area through
03-04Z. This is within a larger-scale organized convective system
which has evolved, southwestward to the lee of Sacramento Mountains,
and now crossing the southern New Mexico/west Texas border area. As
this activity continues to propagate east-southeastward, based on
objective instability analyses, it will begin to encounter
considerably less unstable inflow, and a fairly rapid diminishing
trend may commence. However, strong winds probably will be a bit
slower to diminish along the leading edge of the remnant gust front.
..Kerr.. 05/29/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 33840239 34250220 33230147 32030275 32630384 33030283
33390268 33840239SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 1:51 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe, Harding and 6 more | 114 min |
| May 29, 5:30 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Union | 90 min |
| May 28, 6:18 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crane, Crockett, Ector, Kimble, Reagan, Schleicher and 4 more | 87 min |
| May 28, 6:40 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Andrews, Bailey, Borden, Castro, Cochran, Crosby and 16 more | 6 hr |
| May 28, 6:58 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bandera, Bexar, Comal, Gonzales, Guadalupe, Medina and 2 more | 2 hr |
| May 28, 9:15 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bee, Brazoria, Calhoun, Fort Bend, Goliad, Jackson and 5 more | 90 min |
| May 28, 10:22 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crane, Pecos, Reeves, Upton, Ward, Winkler | 113 min |
| May 29, 12:34 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crockett, Dimmit, Edwards, Frio, Kimble, Kinney and 10 more | 2 hr |
| May 29, 9:09 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brooks, Cameron, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Kenedy, Starr and 1 more | 96 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.