Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 795

May 28, 2021Lea County, New Mexico; 6 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 28, 2021, 8:12 PM MDT for Lea County, New Mexico; 6 counties in Texas. It was in force for 93 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 28, 2021, 8:12 PM MDT (02:12 UTC)
Expired
May 28, 2021, 9:45 PM MDT
In force
93 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 219...220...222

Counties Lea County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Terry County, TX

The radar

The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 2.2 hours before the alert went out and 152 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-05-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2460 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-05-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 59 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2460 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-89 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1075 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
59 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
267 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
2.7
Supercell composite
18.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

331 
ACUS11 KWNS 290212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290212 
TXZ000-NMZ000-290345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0795
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0912 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern/east central New Mexico and
adajcent western Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 219...220...222...

Valid 290212Z - 290345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 219, 220,
222 continues.

SUMMARY...An organized convective system may begin to undergo rapid
weakening as it progresses east of the southern New Mexico border
area within the next hour or so, but strong surface gusts may be
slower to diminish along remnant southeastward advancing outflow.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined MCV has developed, with 50+ kt
southeasterly rear inflow to its south, progressing southeast of the
Clovis, NM vicinity, and will approach the Lubbock, TX area through
03-04Z.  This is within a larger-scale organized convective system
which has evolved, southwestward to the lee of Sacramento Mountains,
and now crossing the southern New Mexico/west Texas border area.  As
this activity continues to propagate east-southeastward, based on
objective instability analyses, it will begin to encounter
considerably less unstable inflow, and a fairly rapid diminishing
trend may commence.  However, strong winds probably will be a bit
slower to diminish along the leading edge of the remnant gust front.

..Kerr.. 05/29/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33840239 34250220 33230147 32030275 32630384 33030283
            33390268 33840239

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 29, 1:51 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChaves, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe, Harding and 6 more114 min
May 29, 5:30 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCUnion90 min
May 28, 6:18 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrane, Crockett, Ector, Kimble, Reagan, Schleicher and 4 more87 min
May 28, 6:40 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAndrews, Bailey, Borden, Castro, Cochran, Crosby and 16 more6 hr
May 28, 6:58 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBandera, Bexar, Comal, Gonzales, Guadalupe, Medina and 2 more2 hr
May 28, 9:15 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBee, Brazoria, Calhoun, Fort Bend, Goliad, Jackson and 5 more90 min
May 28, 10:22 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrane, Pecos, Reeves, Upton, Ward, Winkler113 min
May 29, 12:34 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrockett, Dimmit, Edwards, Frio, Kimble, Kinney and 10 more2 hr
May 29, 9:09 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrooks, Cameron, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Kenedy, Starr and 1 more96 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.