Mesoscale Discussion 802

Issued

May 29, 2021, 1:51 PM MDT (19:51 UTC)

Expired

May 29, 2021, 3:45 PM MDT

In force

114 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch possible

Chance of a watch

40%

Counties Chaves County, NM, Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Harding County, NM, Lea County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Otero County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Culberson County, TX, Hudspeth County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Presidio County, TX, Reeves County, TX

The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 168 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

389 
ACUS11 KWNS 291951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291951 
TXZ000-NMZ000-292145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0802
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021

Areas affected...east-central New Mexico southward into far west
Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 291951Z - 292145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may develop across eastern New Mexico this
afternoon into this evening across east-central and southeast New
Mexico. Large hail and gusty winds should be the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...Afternoon visible satellite imagery indicates several
failed attempts at deep, moist convection across the higher terrain
of south-central New Mexico, within a broad, weak moist-upslope
regime. These failed attempts can likely be attributed in some part
to warm upper-level temperatures associated with broad riding
traversing New Mexico this afternoon and evening. However, with
continued moistening and heating, it is anticipated that at least
one or two attempts at deep, moist convection will sustain itself by
early evening. This scenario is supported by recent high-resolution
CAM guidance such as the HRRR. Should deep, moist convection sustain
itself, steep low-to-mid-level lapse rates and long
mid-to-upper-level hodographs suggest that large hail and gusty
outflows will be possible this afternoon and evening, with hail
being the predominant threat.

Farther south, sustained convection is occurring across the higher
terrain of far west Texas. Through the afternoon, sustained
convection should remain tied to the terrain and may pose a hail
threat in the more robust updrafts. 

At this time, convective coverage may remain sufficiently sparse to
preclude the need for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, but trends will
be monitored through the afternoon.

..Marsh/Hart.. 05/29/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   32940331 29010363 30720557 32650592 35160578 36110387
            35630314 32940331

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.