Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 793

May 28, 202110 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 28, 2021, 7:18 PM CDT for 10 counties in Texas. It was in force for 87 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 28, 2021, 7:18 PM CDT (00:18 UTC)
Expired
May 28, 2021, 8:45 PM CDT
In force
87 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 220

Counties Crane County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Ector County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-05-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2460 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-05-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 59 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2460 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-89 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1075 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
59 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
267 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
2.7
Supercell composite
18.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

520 
ACUS11 KWNS 290018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290018 
TXZ000-290145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0793
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

Areas affected...Parts of the Pecos Valley into Edwards Plateau of
Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 220...

Valid 290018Z - 290145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 220
continues.

SUMMARY...Widely scattered intense storms posing a risk for large
hail and locally strong surface gusts will probably persist at least
into the 9-10 PM CDT time frame, in a corridor west-southwest of
Midland into areas southeast of Junction.

DISCUSSION...A zone of strong differential surface heating, near the
leading edge of a slowly southwestward advancing intrusion of cooler
air and convective outflow, has become a focus for strong
boundary-layer destabilization and intensifying thunderstorm
development.  In the presence of modest to weak, but strongly
sheared west-northwesterly ambient deep-layer mean flow, storms
probably will continue to strengthen and organize, at least into the
02-03Z time frame.  This may include a couple of supercells posing a
risk for large hail and locally strong surface gusts, given
thermodynamic profiles characterized by a very warm and deeply mixed
boundary layer, steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates and large
CAPE.

..Kerr.. 05/29/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   32060271 31520164 30990064 30309932 30250072 30880217
            31450317 31850348 32060271

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 28, 7:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAndrews, Bailey, Borden, Castro, Cochran, Crosby and 16 more6 hr
May 28, 7:58 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBandera, Bexar, Comal, Gonzales, Guadalupe, Medina and 2 more2 hr
May 28, 9:12 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Gaines, Hockley, Lubbock, Lynn, Terry93 min
May 28, 10:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBee, Brazoria, Calhoun, Fort Bend, Goliad, Jackson and 5 more90 min
May 28, 11:22 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrane, Pecos, Reeves, Upton, Ward, Winkler113 min
May 29, 1:34 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrockett, Dimmit, Edwards, Frio, Kimble, Kinney and 10 more2 hr
May 29, 10:09 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrooks, Cameron, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Kenedy, Starr and 1 more96 min
May 29, 2:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCulberson, Hudspeth, Jeff Davis, Loving, Presidio, Reeves114 min
May 29, 6:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDallam, Hartley, Moore90 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.