Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 798
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 29, 2021, 1:34 AM CDT for 16 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 29, 2021, 1:34 AM CDT (06:34 UTC)
- Expired
- May 29, 2021, 4:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Crockett County, TX, Dimmit County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Frio County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Kinney County, TX, La Salle County, TX, Maverick County, TX, Menard County, TX, Real County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Uvalde County, TX, Val Verde County, TX, Zavala County, TX
The radar
The Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 53 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 00:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 46 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 3576 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -62 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1255 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 37 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 14 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 166 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 3.0
- Supercell composite
- 14.8
The text
As transmitted.
073
ACUS11 KWNS 290635
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290634
TXZ000-290900-
Mesoscale Discussion 0798
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CDT Sat May 29 2021
Areas affected...Portions of the Edwards Plateau into south-central
TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 290634Z - 290900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Severe/damaging wind gusts may continue with a cluster of
storms. Watch issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...An organized cluster of storms will probably continue
southeastward early this morning along the MLCAPE gradient present
across the Edwards Plateau. Although some convective inhibition is
present across this region, persistent 30-35 kt low-level
southeasterly winds indicated on the KDFX VWP will maintain a fetch
of moist boundary-layer air ahead of these storms. KE41 in west TX
recently gusted to 51 kt as the cluster moved through, and enhanced
outbound velocities have been observed from the KMAF radar. Strong
deep-layer shear will likely support continued organization with
this cluster in the short term, and the presence of steep mid-level
lapse rates observed on the 00Z DRT sounding are contributing to
substantial MUCAPE (2000-3000 J/kg) per latest mesoanalysis
estimates. Although it remains unclear how long the cluster will
persist since some MLCIN is present, a threat for at least isolated
severe/damaging winds will probably continue for a few hours early
this morning. A somewhat greater severe threat should remain
confined along and south of an outflow boundary from earlier
convection that is present across this region.
..Gleason/Grams.. 05/29/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 30780170 31050134 31650043 30909970 29379925 29059886
28539876 28079932 28020007 28380040 29040074 29380110
29680144 29770172 30640207 30780170SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 7:18 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crane, Crockett, Ector, Kimble, Reagan, Schleicher and 4 more | 87 min |
| May 28, 7:40 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Andrews, Bailey, Borden, Castro, Cochran, Crosby and 16 more | 6 hr |
| May 28, 7:58 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bandera, Bexar, Comal, Gonzales, Guadalupe, Medina and 2 more | 2 hr |
| May 28, 9:12 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Gaines, Hockley, Lubbock, Lynn, Terry | 93 min |
| May 28, 10:15 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bee, Brazoria, Calhoun, Fort Bend, Goliad, Jackson and 5 more | 90 min |
| May 28, 11:22 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crane, Pecos, Reeves, Upton, Ward, Winkler | 113 min |
| May 29, 10:09 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brooks, Cameron, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Kenedy, Starr and 1 more | 96 min |
| May 29, 2:51 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Culberson, Hudspeth, Jeff Davis, Loving, Presidio, Reeves | 114 min |
| May 29, 6:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dallam, Hartley, Moore | 90 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.