Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 804

May 29, 20214 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 29, 2021, 5:30 PM MDT for 4 states. It was in force for 90 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 29, 2021, 5:30 PM MDT (23:30 UTC)
Expired
May 29, 2021, 7:00 PM MDT
In force
90 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 223

Counties Baca County, CO, Union County, NM, Cimarron County, OK, Dallam County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Moore County, TX

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 200 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 226 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-05-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-05-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 0 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-638 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1030 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
0 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
46 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

233 
ACUS11 KWNS 292331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292330 
OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-300100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0804
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021

Areas affected...Far southeast CO...Far northeast NM...Western OK
Panhandle...Northwest TX Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 223...

Valid 292330Z - 300100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 223 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief
tornado continues across southeast Colorado this evening. Some
severe threat may spread out of WW 223 into far northeast NM and the
western TX/OK Panhandles, with new severe thunderstorm watch
issuance possible.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms across far southeast CO will
continue to pose a severe threat into early evening, as moderate
instability is maintained near and downstream of the cluster.
Maintenance and potential upscale growth of this cluster is possible
with time, as a southeasterly low-level jet increases tonight. With
strong MLCINH noted to the east, the cluster would likely take on a
more southeasterly motion if it survives, spreading a severe threat
into portions of far northeast NM and the western OK/northwest TX
Panhandles. Large hail will probably remain the most likely hazard
in the short term, associated with stronger multicells or transient
supercells within the cluster. A somewhat greater severe wind risk
may evolve with time, especially if more substantial upscale growth
can occur. 

Downstream watch issuance into portions of the western TX/OK
Panhandles and possibly far northeast NM is possible if trends
support a substantial severe threat into these areas later this
evening.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/29/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37280388 37740239 37180217 35840181 35750319 36120368
            36530388 37040418 37330383 37280388

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 29, 12:58 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaca, Bent, Crowley, Elbert, Lincoln, Otero2 hr
May 29, 1:48 PM MDTTornado WatchSPCBaca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley, Elbert, El Paso and 6 more7 hr
May 29, 4:54 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrowley, El Paso, Lincoln66 min
May 28, 8:12 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLea93 min
May 29, 1:51 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChaves, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe, Harding and 6 more114 min
May 28, 6:18 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrane, Crockett, Ector, Kimble, Reagan, Schleicher and 4 more87 min
May 28, 6:40 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAndrews, Bailey, Borden, Castro, Cochran, Crosby and 16 more6 hr
May 28, 6:58 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBandera, Bexar, Comal, Gonzales, Guadalupe, Medina and 2 more2 hr
May 28, 9:15 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBee, Brazoria, Calhoun, Fort Bend, Goliad, Jackson and 5 more90 min
May 28, 10:22 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrane, Pecos, Reeves, Upton, Ward, Winkler113 min
May 29, 12:34 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrockett, Dimmit, Edwards, Frio, Kimble, Kinney and 10 more2 hr
May 29, 9:09 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrooks, Cameron, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Kenedy, Starr and 1 more96 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.