Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 803

May 29, 2021Crowley County, El Paso County, Lincoln County, Colorado

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 29, 2021, 4:54 PM MDT for Crowley County, El Paso County, Lincoln County, Colorado. It was in force for 66 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 29, 2021, 4:54 PM MDT (22:54 UTC)
Expired: May 29, 2021, 6:00 PM MDT
In force: 66 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Tornado watch 223

Counties Crowley County, CO, El Paso County, CO, Lincoln County, CO

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 32 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 161 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2325 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -78 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 92 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

508 
ACUS11 KWNS 292255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292254 
COZ000-300000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0803
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0554 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021

Areas affected...East-central/southeast CO

Concerning...Tornado Watch 223...

Valid 292254Z - 300000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 223 continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail and a brief tornado will be possible through
00Z.

DISCUSSION...At 2245Z, a cluster of strong thunderstorms is ongoing
across El Paso County CO, with additional rapid development noted
across southern Lincoln County, in the vicinity of multiple boundary
intersections. The Lincoln County convection could evolve into a
supercell or two, given moderate instability and sufficient
effective shear in place. Hail would be the primary threat, though a
brief tornado will be possible with any intense updraft interacting
with the boundaries that are in the vicinity. 

Further west across El Paso County, storms may struggle to move
eastward as outflow spreads will ahead of the convection, but
redevelopment remains possible near and south of Colorado Springs,
with a continued risk of hail into this evening.

..Dean.. 05/29/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   39070492 39080381 38950317 38300338 38220426 38320480
            38610492 38790495 39070492

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 29, 12:58 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baca, Bent, Crowley, Elbert, Lincoln, Otero	2 hr
May 29, 1:48 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley, Elbert, El Paso and 6 more	7 hr
May 29, 5:30 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baca	90 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.