Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 783
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 28, 2021, 11:16 AM CDT for 25 counties in Texas. It was in force for 89 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 28, 2021, 11:16 AM CDT (16:16 UTC)
- Expired
- May 28, 2021, 12:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 89 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 25 counties
Bell County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Brazos County, TX, Brown County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Erath County, TX, Falls County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Grimes County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Hill County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, Madison County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Mills County, TX, Robertson County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Williamson County, TX
The radar
The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 114 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 4.3 hours before the alert went out and 156 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 313 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -386 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 694 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 40 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 90 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 37 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 5.0
The text
As transmitted.
002
ACUS11 KWNS 281617
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281616
TXZ000-281745-
Mesoscale Discussion 0783
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021
Areas affected...portions of central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 281616Z - 281745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...An increase in severe risk may evolve over the next 1 to 2
hours across portions of central Texas. WW may become necessary if
trends persist.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a small cluster of
thunderstorms that has developed in the vicinity of western Comanche
County. The storms appear to be developing near the intersection of
a remnant outflow boundary -- extending southeastward into the
Houston area -- and the synoptic front moving southward across North
Texas.
Steep lapse rates in place across the region are contributing to
substantial CAPE -- which should support continued storm development
near this boundary intersection. While low-level flow remains a bit
weak and disjointed, moderate mid-level westerlies will be
sufficient to allow some updraft organization/mid-level rotation, as
storms develop/spread east-southeastward with time. Given the
thermodynamics, stronger storms will be capable of producing large
hail. In addition, gusty winds will be possible with storms near
and to the warm side of the surface front, and a brief tornado also
cannot be ruled out as storms interact with the surface boundaries.
..Goss/Hart.. 05/28/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 32129952 32339852 32309775 31639576 30569573 30309663
31129902 31729992 32129952SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 27, 10:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Haskell, Jack, Knox and 7 more | 96 min |
| May 28, 2:33 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Collin, Denton, Hunt, Rockwall, Wise | 117 min |
| May 28, 5:10 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Briscoe, Castro, Childress, Cottle, Floyd, Foard and 7 more | 2 hr |
| May 28, 12:14 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Brazos, Burleson, Burnet, Comanche and 22 more | 7 hr |
| May 28, 12:49 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brewster, Pecos, Presidio, Terrell | 86 min |
| May 28, 1:03 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Bailey, Borden, Cochran, Dawson, Ector and 11 more | 57 min |
| May 28, 2:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Brown, Coke, Coleman, Concho and 35 more | 117 min |
| May 28, 2:45 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brewster, Culberson, Jeff Davis, Loving, Pecos, Reeves and 3 more | 9 hr |
| May 28, 3:41 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Andrews, Brown, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crane and 20 more | 8 hr |
| May 28, 3:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Brazos, Brown, Burleson, Burnet, Comanche and 12 more | 93 min |
| May 28, 5:54 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco and 29 more | 96 min |
| May 28, 6:20 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco and 32 more | 5 hr |
| May 28, 6:49 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bailey, Deaf Smith, Parmer | 86 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.