Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 785
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 28, 2021, 12:03 PM MDT for 12 counties in New Mexico; 17 counties in Texas. It was in force for 57 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 28, 2021, 12:03 PM MDT (18:03 UTC)
- Expired
- May 28, 2021, 1:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 57 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch likely
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 29 counties
Chaves County, NM, Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Harding County, NM, Lea County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Mora County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Bailey County, TX, Borden County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Howard County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Martin County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Terry County, TX, Yoakum County, TX
The radar
The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 17 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 196 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 189 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -416 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1075 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 38 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 192 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 329 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
814
ACUS11 KWNS 281804
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281803
TXZ000-NMZ000-281900-
Mesoscale Discussion 0785
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021
Areas affected...eastern New Mexico and into adjacent portions of
Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 281803Z - 281900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storm development is expected across eastern New Mexico in
the next 1 to 3 hours, which will likely require eventual WW
issuance.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows continued
erosion of low cloud cover across eastern New Mexico, as a cold
front has pushed westward into this area. Resulting diurnal heating
has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values to 1500 J/kg in northeastern New
Mexico, and as high as 2500 J/kg farther south, as a result of very
steep lapse rates aloft atop upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints.
With easterly/southeasterly low-level upslope flow across eastern
New Mexico and presence of the aforementioned cold front, storm
development -- now underway over the high terrain from Las Vegas to
Raton -- should begin in the next couple of hours farther east, per
current indications with respect to the cu field.
Initial storms are expected to organize/acquire rotation -- aided by
favorably veering/increasing flow with height. Large hail is
expected initially, followed by and accompanying/increasing wind
risk with time as storms grow upscale linearly and shift
southeastward. The evolving risk will likely require eventual WW
issuance.
..Goss/Hart.. 05/28/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36590451 36400373 35520335 34690295 33890196 32300076
31810234 32230446 34150585 35170571 36590451SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 4:10 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Curry | 2 hr |
| May 28, 1:45 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe, Harding and 6 more | 9 hr |
| May 28, 5:49 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Curry, Roosevelt | 86 min |
| May 27, 9:24 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Haskell, Jack, Knox and 7 more | 96 min |
| May 28, 1:33 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Collin, Denton, Hunt, Rockwall, Wise | 117 min |
| May 28, 10:16 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Brazos, Brown, Burleson, Coleman and 19 more | 89 min |
| May 28, 11:14 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Brazos, Burleson, Burnet, Comanche and 22 more | 7 hr |
| May 28, 11:49 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brewster, Pecos, Presidio, Terrell | 86 min |
| May 28, 1:33 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Brown, Coke, Coleman, Concho and 35 more | 117 min |
| May 28, 2:41 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Andrews, Brown, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crane and 20 more | 8 hr |
| May 28, 2:42 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Brazos, Brown, Burleson, Burnet, Comanche and 12 more | 93 min |
| May 28, 4:54 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco and 29 more | 96 min |
| May 28, 5:20 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco and 32 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.