Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 792
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 28, 2021, 5:49 PM MDT for Curry County, Roosevelt County, New Mexico; Bailey County, Deaf Smith County, Parmer County, Texas. It was in force for 86 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 28, 2021, 5:49 PM MDT (23:49 UTC)
- Expired
- May 28, 2021, 7:15 PM MDT
- In force
- 86 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 219
Counties Curry County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, Bailey County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Parmer County, TX
The radar
The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 181 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 189 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -416 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1075 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 38 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 192 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 329 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
215
ACUS11 KWNS 282350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282349
TXZ000-NMZ000-290115-
Mesoscale Discussion 0792
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021
Areas affected...Parts of east central New Mexico and adjacent
portions of west Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 219...
Valid 282349Z - 290115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 219
continues.
SUMMARY...Storms may continue to pose a risk for large hail, and
perhaps a brief tornado, but strong surface gusts probably will
become the more prominent hazard as activity continues to
consolidate and overspread the Clovis, NM vicinity through 7-9 PM
MDT.
DISCUSSION...Consolidating convection near and south through
southwest of Tucumcari might have been aided by forcing associated
with weak short wave troughing progressing east of the southern
Rockies. This is embedded within generally weak (10-20 kt)
west-northwesterly ambient deep-layer mean flow, but deep-layer
shear is strong, largely due to pronounced veering of winds with
height.
Southeasterly near-surface flow across the Texas South Plains into
eastern New Mexico is maintaining sufficient moisture to support
CAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg (larger toward the Texas South Plains),
within a deeply mixed boundary layer, beneath steep mid-level lapse
rates. As convection continues to develop southeastward into this
environment, a congealing surface cold pool may strengthen, with
forcing along its leading edge maintaining vigorous thunderstorm
development.
It is possible that isolated discrete supercell structures could
continue to form near and just ahead of the cold pool, but
convection seems likely to otherwise consolidate into an organizing
convective system, with strong surface gusts becoming a more
prominent threat as activity spreads across and southeast of the
Clovis, NM vicinity through 01-03Z.
..Kerr.. 05/28/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35270285 35000219 33950241 33680371 33700408 33910448
34020453 34310362 34770323 35270285SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 4:10 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Curry | 2 hr |
| May 28, 12:03 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe, Harding and 6 more | 57 min |
| May 28, 1:45 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe, Harding and 6 more | 9 hr |
| May 27, 9:24 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Haskell, Jack, Knox and 7 more | 96 min |
| May 28, 1:33 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Collin, Denton, Hunt, Rockwall, Wise | 117 min |
| May 28, 10:16 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Brazos, Brown, Burleson, Coleman and 19 more | 89 min |
| May 28, 11:14 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Brazos, Burleson, Burnet, Comanche and 22 more | 7 hr |
| May 28, 11:49 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brewster, Pecos, Presidio, Terrell | 86 min |
| May 28, 1:33 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Brown, Coke, Coleman, Concho and 35 more | 117 min |
| May 28, 2:41 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Andrews, Brown, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crane and 20 more | 8 hr |
| May 28, 2:42 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Brazos, Brown, Burleson, Burnet, Comanche and 12 more | 93 min |
| May 28, 4:54 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco and 29 more | 96 min |
| May 28, 5:20 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco and 32 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.