Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 782
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 28, 2021, 4:10 AM MDT for Curry County, New Mexico; 13 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 28, 2021, 4:10 AM MDT (10:10 UTC)
- Expired
- May 28, 2021, 6:15 AM MDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Curry County, NM, Briscoe County, TX, Castro County, TX, Childress County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Foard County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Motley County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Swisher County, TX
The radar
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 474 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -119 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1941 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 56 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 56 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 180 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 2.5
The text
As transmitted.
524
ACUS11 KWNS 281011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281010
TXZ000-NMZ000-281215-
Mesoscale Discussion 0782
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021
Areas affected...Portions of far eastern NM into northwest TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 281010Z - 281215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and strong/gusty winds may occur for
the next couple of hours with storms moving eastward. Watch issuance
is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...A few storms have developed early this morning
along/near a cold front across far eastern NM into northwest TX.
Easterly low-level upslope flow noted on the KLBB VWP is likely
supporting this activity. Even though deep-layer flow appears rather
weak, around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear is present. This should be
enough to foster continued storm organization in the short term. A
outflow boundary from earlier convection has surged well south of
these ongoing storms, which is limiting boundary-layer moisture.
Still, steep mid-level lapse rates remain across this region. MUCAPE
around 1500-2000 J/kg coupled with the sufficient effective bulk
shear suggests some potential for mainly elevated supercells posing
an isolated large hail threat for the next couple of hours. A recent
measured wind gust to 46 kt was observed at Childress TX with one of
these storms, and occasional strong/gusty may also occur. Current
expectations are for the hail/wind threat to remain too isolated to
warrant watch issuance early this morning.
..Gleason/Grams.. 05/28/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34810379 34950367 34840231 34690032 34399975 34159922
33719944 33800061 33960247 34320354 34810379SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 12:03 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe, Harding and 6 more | 57 min |
| May 28, 1:45 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe, Harding and 6 more | 9 hr |
| May 28, 5:49 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Curry, Roosevelt | 86 min |
| May 27, 9:24 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Haskell, Jack, Knox and 7 more | 96 min |
| May 28, 1:33 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Collin, Denton, Hunt, Rockwall, Wise | 117 min |
| May 28, 10:16 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Brazos, Brown, Burleson, Coleman and 19 more | 89 min |
| May 28, 11:14 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Brazos, Burleson, Burnet, Comanche and 22 more | 7 hr |
| May 28, 11:49 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brewster, Pecos, Presidio, Terrell | 86 min |
| May 28, 1:33 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Brown, Coke, Coleman, Concho and 35 more | 117 min |
| May 28, 2:41 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Andrews, Brown, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crane and 20 more | 8 hr |
| May 28, 2:42 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Brazos, Brown, Burleson, Burnet, Comanche and 12 more | 93 min |
| May 28, 4:54 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco and 29 more | 96 min |
| May 28, 5:20 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco and 32 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.