Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 788
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 28, 2021, 3:42 PM CDT for 18 counties in Texas. It was in force for 93 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 28, 2021, 3:42 PM CDT (20:42 UTC)
- Expired
- May 28, 2021, 5:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 93 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 218
Counties Bell County, TX, Brazos County, TX, Brown County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Erath County, TX, Falls County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Lee County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Mills County, TX, Robertson County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Williamson County, TX
The radar
The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 175 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 313 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -386 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 694 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 40 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 90 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 37 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 5.0
The text
As transmitted.
677 ACUS11 KWNS 282042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282042 TXZ000-282215- Mesoscale Discussion 0788 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021 Areas affected...central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 218... Valid 282042Z - 282215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 218 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk continues locally, within WW 218. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that the storm which crossed Coryell County -- likely producing large hail -- has weakened some and moved east-southeastward into McLennan County. Meanwhile, fairly widespread -- but currently sub-severe -- storms continue across portions of the watch. With a favorably unstable airmass -- particularly across southern and eastern portions of the watch which have been spared of convective contamination -- still in place, risk for large hail as well as locally stronger/damaging wind gusts remains evident. Convection appears to be increasing just west of the watch, and as it evolves/spreads eastward, southwestern portions of the WW may be a focus for greater short-term risk. ..Goss.. 05/28/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 32069911 32389837 30719584 30179671 30989911 32069911
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 27, 10:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Haskell, Jack, Knox and 7 more | 96 min |
| May 28, 2:33 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Collin, Denton, Hunt, Rockwall, Wise | 117 min |
| May 28, 5:10 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Briscoe, Castro, Childress, Cottle, Floyd, Foard and 7 more | 2 hr |
| May 28, 11:16 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Brazos, Brown, Burleson, Coleman and 19 more | 89 min |
| May 28, 12:14 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Brazos, Burleson, Burnet, Comanche and 22 more | 7 hr |
| May 28, 12:49 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brewster, Pecos, Presidio, Terrell | 86 min |
| May 28, 1:03 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Bailey, Borden, Cochran, Dawson, Ector and 11 more | 57 min |
| May 28, 2:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Brown, Coke, Coleman, Concho and 35 more | 117 min |
| May 28, 2:45 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brewster, Culberson, Jeff Davis, Loving, Pecos, Reeves and 3 more | 9 hr |
| May 28, 3:41 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Andrews, Brown, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crane and 20 more | 8 hr |
| May 28, 5:54 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco and 29 more | 96 min |
| May 28, 6:20 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco and 32 more | 5 hr |
| May 28, 6:49 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bailey, Deaf Smith, Parmer | 86 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.