Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 189
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 18, 2021, 3:51 PM CDT for 17 counties in Arkansas; LeFlore County, McCurtain County, Oklahoma; 17 counties in Texas. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 18, 2021, 3:51 PM CDT (20:51 UTC)
- Expired
- May 18, 2021, 9:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 36 counties
Clark County, AR, Garland County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Little River County, AR, Logan County, AR, Miller County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Scott County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Yell County, AR, LeFlore County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Morris County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Panola County, TX, Red River County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Smith County, TX, Titus County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Wood County, TX
The radar
The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 155 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 20%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 5%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 50%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 20%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 80%
Warnings issued inside it
9 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 4:07 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | LeFlore, Pushmataha | 38 min |
| May 18, 4:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Polk, Scott | 32 min |
| May 18, 5:07 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | SHV | Bowie, Cass | 35 min |
| May 18, 5:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Logan, Montgomery, Pike, Polk, Scott, Yell | 50 min |
| May 18, 5:43 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Clark, Garland, Montgomery, Pike, Yell | 47 min |
| May 18, 6:06 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Clark, Garland, Hot Spring, Montgomery, Perry, Pike and 3 more | 39 min |
| May 18, 6:27 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Conway, Garland, Hot Spring, Perry, Pope, Saline and 1 more | 63 min |
| May 18, 6:40 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Conway, Johnson, Logan, Pope, Yell | 28 min |
| May 18, 8:42 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | Garland, Montgomery, Perry | 4 hr |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 163 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 56 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -268 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 968 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 41 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 37 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
777 WWUS20 KWNS 182048 SEL9 SPC WW 182048 ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-190200- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 189 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Arkansas Southeast Oklahoma Northeast Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A relatively well-organized cluster of storms will progress east-northeastward across the region, with damaging winds as the primary hazard. Additional/regenerative storm development may occur by early evening across northeast Texas with additional severe storms across the region. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east northeast of Poteau OK to 30 miles south of Longview TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 188... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Guyer
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Columbia, Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River and 6 more | 2 hr |
| May 18, 5:39 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Conway, Crawford, Faulkner, Franklin, Garland and 20 more | 2 hr |
| May 18, 3:10 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Jefferson, Lafourche, Orleans, Saint Charles, Saint John the Baptist, Saint Tammany and 1 more | 95 min |
| May 17, 7:04 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cotton, Jefferson, Stephens, Tillman | 86 min |
| May 17, 7:23 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaver, Cimarron, Texas | 2 hr |
| May 17, 9:28 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaver, Beckham, Cimarron, Ellis, Roger Mills, Texas | 2 hr |
| May 17, 7:32 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, McCulloch and 4 more | 3 hr |
| May 17, 7:37 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Glasscock, Howard, Jones and 6 more | 83 min |
| May 17, 8:04 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Archer, Clay, Comanche, Eastland, Erath, Hamilton and 11 more | 5 hr |
| May 17, 8:34 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Dimmit, Frio, La Salle, McMullen, Maverick and 2 more | 116 min |
| May 17, 9:44 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle and 15 more | 91 min |
| May 17, 10:23 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Brown, Callahan, Clay, Coke, Coleman and 16 more | 97 min |
| May 17, 10:35 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Brewster, Crane, Crockett, Dawson and 13 more | 85 min |
| May 17, 10:58 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Brown, Coke, Coleman, Concho and 22 more | 7 hr |
| May 17, 11:37 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bosque, Brown, Comanche, Denton, Eastland, Erath and 9 more | 83 min |
| May 18, 1:02 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brooks, Duval, Jim Hogg | 58 min |
| May 18, 1:29 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Coke, Concho, Crane, Crockett, Ector, Glasscock and 13 more | 91 min |
| May 18, 5:07 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Coke, Concho, Irion, Reagan, Runnels, Schleicher and 2 more | 53 min |
| May 18, 1:18 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar, Brazos, Burleson and 28 more | 117 min |
| May 18, 1:57 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bailey, Castro, Deaf Smith, Parmer, Randall, Swisher | 3 hr |
| May 18, 2:29 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Anderson, Atascosa, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco and 30 more | 7 hr |
| May 18, 3:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bastrop, Caldwell, Colorado, Fayette, Gonzales, Guadalupe and 2 more | 83 min |
| May 18, 5:10 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | La Salle, McMullen, Webb | 95 min |
| May 18, 6:07 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 17 more | 113 min |
| May 18, 6:13 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Austin, Brazos, Burleson, Colorado, DeWitt, Fayette and 14 more | 92 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Arkansas, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Oklahoma, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.