Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 189

May 18, 202117 counties in Arkansas; LeFlore County, McCurtain County, Oklahoma; 17 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 18, 2021, 3:51 PM CDT for 17 counties in Arkansas; LeFlore County, McCurtain County, Oklahoma; 17 counties in Texas. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 18, 2021, 3:51 PM CDT (20:51 UTC)
Expired
May 18, 2021, 9:00 PM CDT
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 36 counties

Clark County, AR, Garland County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Little River County, AR, Logan County, AR, Miller County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Scott County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Yell County, AR, LeFlore County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Morris County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Panola County, TX, Red River County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Smith County, TX, Titus County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Wood County, TX

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 155 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

9 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 18, 4:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSALeFlore, Pushmataha38 min
May 18, 4:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKPolk, Scott32 min
May 18, 5:07 PM CDTTornado WarningSHVBowie, Cass35 min
May 18, 5:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLogan, Montgomery, Pike, Polk, Scott, Yell50 min
May 18, 5:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKClark, Garland, Montgomery, Pike, Yell47 min
May 18, 6:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKClark, Garland, Hot Spring, Montgomery, Perry, Pike and 3 more39 min
May 18, 6:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKConway, Garland, Hot Spring, Perry, Pope, Saline and 1 more63 min
May 18, 6:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKConway, Johnson, Logan, Pope, Yell28 min
May 18, 8:42 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKGarland, Montgomery, Perry4 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 163 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2021-05-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 56 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2021-05-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 41 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
56 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-268 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
968 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
41 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
37 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

777 
WWUS20 KWNS 182048
SEL9  
SPC WW 182048
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-190200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 189
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Western Arkansas
  Southeast Oklahoma
  Northeast Texas

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until
  900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A relatively well-organized cluster of storms will
progress east-northeastward across the region, with damaging winds
as the primary hazard. Additional/regenerative storm development may
occur by early evening across northeast Texas with additional severe
storms across the region.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east northeast
of Poteau OK to 30 miles south of Longview TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 188...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
23025.

...Guyer

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 18, 2:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Columbia, Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River and 6 more2 hr
May 18, 5:39 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Conway, Crawford, Faulkner, Franklin, Garland and 20 more2 hr
May 18, 3:10 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJefferson, Lafourche, Orleans, Saint Charles, Saint John the Baptist, Saint Tammany and 1 more95 min
May 17, 7:04 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCotton, Jefferson, Stephens, Tillman86 min
May 17, 7:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Cimarron, Texas2 hr
May 17, 9:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Beckham, Cimarron, Ellis, Roger Mills, Texas2 hr
May 17, 7:32 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBrown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, McCulloch and 4 more3 hr
May 17, 7:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCallahan, Coke, Coleman, Glasscock, Howard, Jones and 6 more83 min
May 17, 8:04 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArcher, Clay, Comanche, Eastland, Erath, Hamilton and 11 more5 hr
May 17, 8:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Dimmit, Frio, La Salle, McMullen, Maverick and 2 more116 min
May 17, 9:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle and 15 more91 min
May 17, 10:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Brown, Callahan, Clay, Coke, Coleman and 16 more97 min
May 17, 10:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Borden, Brewster, Crane, Crockett, Dawson and 13 more85 min
May 17, 10:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAndrews, Borden, Brown, Coke, Coleman, Concho and 22 more7 hr
May 17, 11:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBosque, Brown, Comanche, Denton, Eastland, Erath and 9 more83 min
May 18, 1:02 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrooks, Duval, Jim Hogg58 min
May 18, 1:29 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCoke, Concho, Crane, Crockett, Ector, Glasscock and 13 more91 min
May 18, 5:07 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCoke, Concho, Irion, Reagan, Runnels, Schleicher and 2 more53 min
May 18, 1:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar, Brazos, Burleson and 28 more117 min
May 18, 1:57 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBailey, Castro, Deaf Smith, Parmer, Randall, Swisher3 hr
May 18, 2:29 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAnderson, Atascosa, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco and 30 more7 hr
May 18, 3:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBastrop, Caldwell, Colorado, Fayette, Gonzales, Guadalupe and 2 more83 min
May 18, 5:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLa Salle, McMullen, Webb95 min
May 18, 6:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 17 more113 min
May 18, 6:13 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAustin, Brazos, Burleson, Colorado, DeWitt, Fayette and 14 more92 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Arkansas, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Oklahoma, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.