Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Little Rock, AR

422 
WWUS54 KLZK 182322
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
622 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

ARC019-051-059-097-105-109-115-125-149-182345-
/O.CON.KLZK.SV.W.0173.000000T0000Z-210518T2345Z/
Clark AR-Perry AR-Pike AR-Garland AR-Saline AR-Yell AR-Hot Spring AR-
Montgomery AR-Pope AR-
622 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CLARK...WESTERN PERRY...EAST CENTRAL PIKE...
GARLAND...NORTHWESTERN SALINE...CENTRAL YELL...WEST CENTRAL HOT
SPRING...EASTERN MONTGOMERY AND SOUTH CENTRAL POPE COUNTIES...

At 622 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Danville to 6 miles south of Plainview in Yell
County to 7 miles northwest of Lake Ouachita State Park to near
Lofton to near Amity, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Public.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Hot Springs...                    Hot Springs Village...
Danville...                       Dardanelle...
Ola...                            Mountain Pine...
Amity...                          Meyers...
Jessieville...                    Petit Jean River WMA...
Lake Ouachita State Park...       Lofton...
Rockwell...                       Mosley...
Hot Springs Memorial Field...     Halfway...
Plainview in Yell County...       Hot Springs National Park...
Belleville...                     Avant...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3523 9316 3501 9299 3482 9298 3455 9304
      3407 9331 3407 9352 3433 9343 3461 9337
      3484 9342 3509 9356
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 242DEG 31KT 3512 9337 3491 9326 3472 9324 3439
9331 3423 9337

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

57

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
250 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday

For the most part, have seen a lull in rainfall coverage acrs much
of the FA this aftn as we are in between of upper impulses. Other
than sctd showers acrs mainly Ern AR, skies have been mostly cloudy
with mid aftn temps in the mid 70s to the lower 80s.

An upper lvl low remained centered to the west of AR this aftn, acrs
the southern Rockies. The resulting SW flow aloft conts to keep an
abundant stream of moisture into the region. Another area of
convection was affecting parts of NE TX and SRN OK this aftn, assocd
with the next impulse ejecting fm the upr low.

Latest CAMS data has a good handle on this activity and expect it to
affect SW AR late this aftn, eventually moving into parts of wrn and
cntrl sections of the FA early this evening. Models cont to show an
overall weakening trend thru the overnight hours, but plan to keep
chc PoPs in the fcst for any lingering activity.

Cannot rule out a few strong/svr storms, with the main concerns
being gusty winds and locally heavy downpours. This next round of
convection wl have the potential to drop at least another 1-2 inches
of rain over already saturated grounds. Thus, wl keep the Flood
Watch in place as is thru Wed night.

Yet another upr lvl wave is fcst to head our way later Wed and Wed
night. There are suggestions that this feature wl pass further to
the S of AR, keeping the bulk of the convection out of our area. Did
not make any sig changes to PoP trends durg this time once again due
to contd uncertainties with smaller scale convective trends.

The aforementioned upper low is fcst to finally bcm an open wave as
it lifts to the NE Wed ngt and Thu. The better rain chances durg
this timeframe wl trend more toward Wrn AR, as high pres aloft ovr
the SE U.S. begins to build sloly to the W. This wl also allow temps
to modify as the week progresses, with a taste of summer returning
to the fcst.
&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday

Slight chance to chance PoPs remain late Thurs through early Fri,
mainly over western AR, as high pressure expands westward and
continues to wrap Gulf moisture northward across the southern
Plains. An additional one-tenth to one-quarter inch QPF will be
possible over much of the western half of the state, possibly more
over the southwesternmost counties.

Several days of rainfall come to an end during the day Friday. High
pressure will promote dry weather and mostly clear conditions
through early next week. Temperatures will warm through the weekend,
from highs in the upper 70s to the mid 80s Fri to the 80s and lower
90s early next week. Lows will remain in the lower to mid 60s.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Clark-Conway-Faulkner-
Garland-Hot Spring-Montgomery-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Saline-
Scott-Yell.
&&

Short Term...44 / Long Term...231

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
517 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-191000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
517 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through tonight, with
locally heavy rainfall possible. Additional rainfall amounts of
one to two inches are forecast through tonight across the far
west and southwest sections of the area. Locally higher amounts
will be possible...with an increased threat for flash flooding as
a result across the southwest sections of the area.

A few strong to briefly severe thunderstorms could be
seen...mainly across far southwest sections of the area through
this evening. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary
threat with the strongest storms. Otherwise...the overall threat
for organized severe weather looks low at this time for the
remainder of the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday Through Monday

Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast
through Friday as an active weather pattern persists. While the
overall threat for seeing severe weather looks to remain low...a
strong storm or two could be seen. There will remain an increased
threat for flash flooding for portions of western and southwest
Arkansas...where total rainfall amounts of one to three inches
are expected from Tuesday morning through Friday...with locally
higher amounts possible.

Calmer conditions will be seen by the weekend...with the threat
for organized hazardous weather becoming low.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

57

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
441 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

ARZ037-040-041-052-182230-
Pike AR-Polk AR-Scott AR-Montgomery AR-
441 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PIKE...POLK...SOUTHERN
SCOTT AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 441 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Queen Wilhelmina State Park to near Mena
Intermountain Airport to Caney Creek Wilderness to near Lockesburg.
Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Mena...                           Waldron...
Murfreesboro...                   Mount Ida...
Wickes...                         Grannis...
Hatfield...                       Norman...
Oden...                           Daisy...
Little Missouri Falls Recreatio...
Mountain Fork...
Daisy State Park...               Crater Of Diamonds State Park...
Narrows Dam...                    Bard Springs Recreation Area...
Mauldin...                        Albert Pike Recreation Area...
Opal...                           Mimosa...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
western, central and southwestern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3472 9446 3492 9398 3477 9371 3474 9371
      3474 9366 3456 9362 3397 9363 3401 9382
      3418 9382 3419 9393 3435 9394 3436 9425
      3419 9424 3419 9435 3420 9435 3441 9434
      3450 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 246DEG 36KT 3468 9429 3460 9415 3440 9407 3397
9408

DTC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
505 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

ARZ030-037-182245-
Scott AR-Logan AR-
505 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN AND CENTRAL
SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 505 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Waldron, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Booneville...                     Waldron...
Cardiff...                        Barber...
Needmore...                       Winfield...
Olio...                           Sugar Grove...
Carolan...                        Grayson...
Ione...                           Union Hill...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
western and central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3513 9405 3513 9382 3497 9370 3479 9404
      3479 9416 3483 9424
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 222DEG 36KT 3483 9409

DTC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
506 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MENA                    34.58N  94.24W
05/18/2021                   POLK               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES WERE DOWN ON COUNTY ROADS IN PORTIONS OF
            MENA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100636

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N CADDO GAP           34.42N  93.62W
05/18/2021                   MONTGOMERY         AR   PUBLIC

            SHINGLES WERE BLOWN OFF OF A ROOF AND LIMBS WERE BLOWN
            DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2100637

57