Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Little Rock, AR

452 
WWUS54 KLZK 182049
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
349 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

ARC113-182115-
/O.CON.KLZK.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-210518T2115Z/
Polk AR-
349 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN POLK COUNTY...

At 349 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 17 miles southwest of Octavia to 9 miles northeast of
Broken Bow to 6 miles north of De Kalb, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Wickes...                         Grannis...
Vandervoort...                    Cossatot River State Park...
Hartley...                        Mccauley...
Cove...                           Hatton...
Bogg Springs...                   

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3443 9446 3448 9431 3435 9403 3436 9425
      3427 9426 3427 9425 3419 9425 3419 9447
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 241DEG 37KT 3431 9486 3413 9463 3360 9463 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DTC

500 
WWUS54 KLZK 182114
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
414 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

ARC113-182123-
/O.EXP.KLZK.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-210518T2115Z/
Polk AR-
414 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN POLK COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 415 PM CDT...

This Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been replaced by a new Severe 
Thunderstorm Warning valid until 500 PM CDT. 

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
western Arkansas.


LAT...LON 3443 9446 3448 9431 3435 9403 3436 9425
      3427 9426 3427 9425 3419 9425 3419 9447
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 242DEG 36KT 3442 9462 3423 9439 3370 9439 

$$

DTC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
250 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday

For the most part, have seen a lull in rainfall coverage acrs much
of the FA this aftn as we are in between of upper impulses. Other
than sctd showers acrs mainly Ern AR, skies have been mostly cloudy
with mid aftn temps in the mid 70s to the lower 80s.

An upper lvl low remained centered to the west of AR this aftn, acrs
the southern Rockies. The resulting SW flow aloft conts to keep an
abundant stream of moisture into the region. Another area of
convection was affecting parts of NE TX and SRN OK this aftn, assocd
with the next impulse ejecting fm the upr low.

Latest CAMS data has a good handle on this activity and expect it to
affect SW AR late this aftn, eventually moving into parts of wrn and
cntrl sections of the FA early this evening. Models cont to show an
overall weakening trend thru the overnight hours, but plan to keep
chc PoPs in the fcst for any lingering activity.

Cannot rule out a few strong/svr storms, with the main concerns
being gusty winds and locally heavy downpours. This next round of
convection wl have the potential to drop at least another 1-2 inches
of rain over already saturated grounds. Thus, wl keep the Flood
Watch in place as is thru Wed night.

Yet another upr lvl wave is fcst to head our way later Wed and Wed
night. There are suggestions that this feature wl pass further to
the S of AR, keeping the bulk of the convection out of our area. Did
not make any sig changes to PoP trends durg this time once again due
to contd uncertainties with smaller scale convective trends.

The aforementioned upper low is fcst to finally bcm an open wave as
it lifts to the NE Wed ngt and Thu. The better rain chances durg
this timeframe wl trend more toward Wrn AR, as high pres aloft ovr
the SE U.S. begins to build sloly to the W. This wl also allow temps
to modify as the week progresses, with a taste of summer returning
to the fcst.
&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday

Slight chance to chance PoPs remain late Thurs through early Fri,
mainly over western AR, as high pressure expands westward and
continues to wrap Gulf moisture northward across the southern
Plains. An additional one-tenth to one-quarter inch QPF will be
possible over much of the western half of the state, possibly more
over the southwesternmost counties.

Several days of rainfall come to an end during the day Friday. High
pressure will promote dry weather and mostly clear conditions
through early next week. Temperatures will warm through the weekend,
from highs in the upper 70s to the mid 80s Fri to the 80s and lower
90s early next week. Lows will remain in the lower to mid 60s.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Clark-Conway-Faulkner-
Garland-Hot Spring-Montgomery-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Saline-
Scott-Yell.
&&

Short Term...44 / Long Term...231

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
310 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-191000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
310 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through at least
tonight...with some locally heavy rainfall possible. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast through tonight
across the far west and southwest sections of the area. Locally
higher amounts will be possible...with an increased threat for
flash flooding as a result across the southwest sections of the
area.

A few strong to briefly severe thunderstorms could be
seen...mainly across far southwest sections of the area this
afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary
threat with the strongest storms. Otherwise...the overall threat
for organized severe weather looks low at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday Through Monday

Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast
through Friday as an active weather pattern persists. While the
overall threat for seeing severe weather looks to remain low...a
strong storm or two could be seen. There will remain an increased
threat for flash flooding for portions of western and southwest
Arkansas...where total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are
expected from Tuesday morning through Friday...with locally higher
amounts possible.

Calmer conditions will be seen by the weekend...with the threat
for organized hazardous weather becoming low.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

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