Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 680

May 18, 202110 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 18, 2021, 8:00 PM CDT for 10 counties in Texas. It was in force for 60 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 18, 2021, 8:00 PM CDT (01:00 UTC)
Expired
May 18, 2021, 9:00 PM CDT
In force
60 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 189

Counties Cherokee County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Panola County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Shelby County, TX, Smith County, TX, Upshur County, TX

The radar

The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 00:00Z, 1.0 hours before the alert went out and 96 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2021-05-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 608 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2021-05-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 56 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
608 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-27 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
863 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
9 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
56 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
102 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

627 
ACUS11 KWNS 190101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190100 
LAZ000-TXZ000-190200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0680
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

Areas affected...The Arklatex region

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 189...

Valid 190100Z - 190200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 189
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues to decline for most of WW 189,
but an isolated wind/hail threat remains possible for parts of the
Arklatex region through the late evening hours.

DISCUSSION...Lightning and IR trends continue to show a gradual
weakening of the QLCS across central AR, and sub-severe winds
recently reported with the line further support this idea. Diurnal
cooling will continue to diminish MLCAPE through the late evening
hours across much of AR, which will further act to mitigate the
severe potential across much of WW 189. Further south across the
Arklatex region, around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE along with 25-35 knots of
effective bulk shear are noted in RAP mesoanalysis ahead of a
cluster of storms emerging out of central TX. While this cluster has
largely exhibited only loose organization, it is forecast to
propagate into parts of the Arklatex area over the next 1-2 hours.
Although confidence is low, isolated instances of severe wind/hail
will remain possible given the environment.

..Moore.. 05/19/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   32259559 32669540 32969487 32999432 32689393 32289391
            31909383 31409424 31329493 31679539 32259559

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 18, 7:34 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAustin, Bee, Brazoria, Chambers, Colorado, Fort Bend and 17 more6 hr
May 18, 8:54 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAustin, Fort Bend, Harris, Jackson, Montgomery, Waller and 1 more96 min
May 18, 10:39 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange, Tyler96 min
May 18, 11:00 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDimmit, Duval, Jim Hogg, La Salle, Webb, Zapata90 min
May 19, 3:32 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrooks, Dimmit, Duval, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells and 5 more118 min
May 19, 5:24 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrooks, Cameron, Duval, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells and 8 more8 hr
May 19, 7:09 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHidalgo, Jim Hogg, Starr96 min
May 19, 8:46 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrooks, Cameron, Hidalgo, Kenedy, Willacy89 min
May 19, 2:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCallahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crane, Crockett and 24 more3 hr
May 19, 6:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrane, Crockett, Ector, Glasscock, Irion, Midland and 6 more84 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.