Mesoscale Discussion 659

Issued

May 17, 2021, 6:23 PM MDT (00:23 UTC)

Expired

May 17, 2021, 8:30 PM MDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 181

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 181 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

446 
ACUS11 KWNS 180023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180023 
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-180230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0659
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

Areas affected...Far northeast New Mexico...southeast Colorado...the
northern Panhandles...and southwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181...

Valid 180023Z - 180230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail will continue for WW
181 for the next few hours. Storms will likely reach southwest
Kansas by 03 UTC, and trends will be monitored for the need for a
downstream watch.

DISCUSSION...Prior discrete to semi-discrete convection across
northeast NM and the northwestern TX Panhandle continues to grow
upscale with a cohesive outflow discernible in velocity data from
regional radars. This activity is expected to continue to propagate
to the north/northwest into southeast CO, the northern Panhandles,
and potentially into southwest KS by around 03 UTC. Additionally,
new convective development is noted ahead of this line, but it is
unclear if this convection will pose a robust severe threat before
merging with the approaching line. The environment ahead of this
evolving line remains supportive for organized convection in the
near term, though the onset of diurnal cooling may limit instability
and overall storm intensity to some degree. The greatest severe risk
will likely remain across the Panhandles region into the overnight
hours where more persistent discrete storm modes are expected as
well as a strengthening low-level jet that will help maintain a
robust hail/wind (and perhaps a brief tornado) threat. A downstream
watch into southwest Kansas is possible if the line can maintain
intensity despite a gradual decrease in instability and
boundary-layer decoupling.

To the northwest, convection along the CO front range continues
exhibit gradual consolidation with an outflow boundary slowly
propagating eastward. This activity will continue to pose an
isolated severe wind risk for the next 1-2 hours before
boundary-layer decoupling occurs.

..Moore.. 05/18/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36770491 37510460 38380364 38560264 38190154 37820086
            37060044 36180001 35500011 35260108 35180264 35360309
            35890335 36360415 36770491

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.