Mesoscale Discussion 664

Issued

May 17, 2021, 10:23 PM CDT (03:23 UTC)

Expired

May 18, 2021, 12:00 AM CDT

In force

97 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Tornado watch 185

The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 22 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 187May 17, 11:00 PM CDT

830 
ACUS11 KWNS 180324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180323 
TXZ000-OKZ000-180500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0664
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

Areas affected...North TX into the TX Big Country

Concerning...Tornado Watch 185...

Valid 180323Z - 180500Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 185 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind and hail will persist into late
tonight with the ongoing thunderstorm cluster, especially for the
southern portion of the cluster into the TX Big Country.

DISCUSSION...At 0315Z, a loosely organized MCS is ongoing from
north-central TX into the TX Big Country. The northern portion of
the MCS is struggling to maintain intensity, as it moves into an
environment characterized by increasing MLCINH. However, some threat
for strong wind gusts, and perhaps some hail with the stronger
cores, will persist for at least a couple more hours in that region.

Further south into the TX Big Country, where MLCINH is somewhat
weaker and favorable buoyancy/shear remains in place, a greater
severe threat will likely persist for a few hours this evening. The
primary threat in this region will likely be damaging wind given the
increasingly linear structure and expansive outflow, though some
hail threat will persist with the stronger cores, especially toward
the southwest edge of the cluster. Since the threat will persist
past the 04Z expiration time of WW 185, a new severe thunderstorm
watch will likely be issued for the TX Big Country within the hour.

..Dean/Grams.. 05/18/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   31920056 32769940 33679872 34019877 34029805 33909769
            33279752 32349763 31919782 31559845 31479914 31379987
            31580050 31820075 31920056

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.